中国财政政策、货币政策与经济增长的动力机制研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 17:50

本文选题：财政政策 + 货币政策　；参考：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前,中国经济已进入转型的关键时期。国内外经济环境复杂多变、诸多风险并存对中国经济发展带来了重大阻力。2016年中央政府明确指出,要着力以供给侧结构性改革,来完成好去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板“五大重点任务”。如何有效实施供给侧改革,实现经济的持续增长,保持一个良好的经济环境,显然离不开货币政策和财政政策的配合。由于财政政策和货币政策各自的作用方式及手段特点不同、其对国内生产总值的影响机制也不同。所以,在进行宏观调控时,必须根据二者联动机制的特点有机地协调起来,才可能有效实现预期政策目标。当前的经济学家都认为应该将货币主义与新凯恩斯学派进行相互融合,单纯的坚持“单一货币规则”或单纯的坚持财政政策都不能很好的适应现在的社会发展需求。只有财政政策与货币政策根据实际经济情形进行互补运用才能更好的适合经济增长。如何搭配财政政策与货币政策,使经济平稳增长,其根本在于弄清财政政策、货币政策与经济增长之间的关系。本文通过对国内经济形势与国外经济环境的分析,运用描述性统计和动力系统建模方法发现我国的财政政策和货币政策对经济增长有如下特征第一、至1978年以来,我国的货币供给量M2、GDP、财政赤字波动幅度分别为:261.8、47、-0.053。这表明货币供给量M2波动最大,GDP波动次之,波动最小的为财政赤字。货币供给量M2、GDP、财政赤字的变异系数分别为:1.54、1.32和-1.91,说明GDP的离散程度最小,赤字的离散程度最大,M2离散程度居中。同时,我国的经济总量,货币供应量和财政赤字三者之间存在着同步的变动关系。第二、我国的财政政策作用于货币政策与经济增长的动力机制是直接的。货币政策作用于经济增长的动力机制是直接的;作用于财政政策的动力机制是间接地,是通过国内生产总值作为中间机制来传导的,所以其对财政政策影响很小。我国的经济增长作用于货币政策与财政政策的动力机制也是直接的。第三、单独的改变财政政策和货币政策,无论是暂时性的变动或者持续变动,运用财政政策的效果要比货币政策好。同时改变财政政策和货币政策时,无论是暂时性的变动或者持续变动,其经济系统中的变量变动都是以财政政策的影响为主。货币政策的变动只能对经济系统中的变量产生很小的效应。第四、积极的财政政策和货币政策都有助于经济的增长,消极的财政政策和货币政策有碍于经济的增长。当政策的变动是暂时性的,那么它只会使经济系统的均衡从一个均衡转到另一个均衡;当政策是持久的,那么它会使经济系统的均衡不断的变化。第五、财政赤字、货币供给量与国内生产总值所形成动力系统中只存在一个强吸引力的均衡点。此点处的货币供给量和国内生产总值的均衡值与2015年我国实际值接近,货币供给量的均衡值为234163.25亿美元,实际值为223540亿美元;GDP的均衡值为109630.31亿美元,实际值为108648亿美元。这表明我国现阶段的经济增长出现了很强的阻力,也论证了我国现阶段经济增长疲软和货币低效的现状。因此,现阶段,我国在运用货币政策与财政政策对宏观经济增长进行调控时,应以货币政策为主,辅以财政政策进行微调。并不断地进行相机选择,定向调控。才能确保经济运行在合理区间。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economy has entered a critical period of transformation. The domestic and foreign economic environment is complex and changeable, and many risks have brought great resistance to the development of China's economy in.2016. The central government clearly pointed out that we should focus on the structural reform of the supply side to complete the five major tasks, such as capacity, inventory, leveraging, cost reduction and short board "." How to effectively implement the supply side reform, realize the sustained economic growth and maintain a good economic environment, it is clear that it is inseparable from the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy. Because of the different modes of action and means of monetary policy and monetary policy, the mechanism of its impact on the total value of domestic production is different. At the time of control, it must be coordinated organically according to the characteristics of the linkage mechanism between the two. The current economists believe that monetarism should be integrated with the new Keynes school, and the simple adherence to the "single currency rule" or the simple insistence on fiscal policy can not be well adapted to the present. The needs of social development. Only financial policy and monetary policy can be better adapted to economic growth according to the actual economic situation. How to match the financial policy and monetary policy to make the economy grow steadily is the fundamental reason to clarify the relationship between fiscal policy and monetary policy and economic growth. This article through the domestic economy. The situation and the analysis of foreign economic environment, using descriptive statistics and dynamic system modeling method found that China's fiscal policy and monetary policy have the following characteristics of economic growth as follows: since 1978, China's monetary supply M2, GDP, fiscal deficit fluctuation range are respectively 261.8,47, -0.053. which indicates that the monetary supply M2 fluctuates most. Large, GDP fluctuates and the least volatility is fiscal deficit. The variation coefficient of money supply M2, GDP, and fiscal deficit are 1.54,1.32 and -1.91 respectively, indicating that GDP is the least discrete degree, the largest discretization of the deficit, and the middle of the M2 discreteness. At the same time, there is a synchronization between the total economic total, the money supply and the fiscal deficit of the three of our country. Second, the dynamic mechanism of China's fiscal policy on monetary policy and economic growth is direct. The dynamic mechanism of the monetary policy on economic growth is direct; the dynamic mechanism of the fiscal policy is indirectly transmitted through the gross domestic product as an intermediate mechanism, so its financial policy is to the financial policy. The influence of China's economic growth on monetary policy and fiscal policy is also direct. Third, to change fiscal policy and monetary policy alone, whether it is temporary or continuous change, the effect of fiscal policy is better than monetary policy. When changing fiscal and monetary policies, whether it is The changes in the economic system are mainly influenced by the fiscal policy. The changes in monetary policy can only have small effects on the variables in the economic system. Fourth, the positive financial policy and monetary policy contribute to the growth of the economy, and the negative financial policy and monetary policy are obstructing. Economic growth. When the policy changes are temporary, it will only make the balance of the economic system from one equilibrium to another. When the policy is persistent, it will make the balance of the economic system constantly changing. Fifth, the fiscal deficit, the supply of money and the power system of gross domestic product is only a strong one. The equilibrium value of the money supply and GDP at this point is close to the actual value of our country in 2015. The equilibrium value of the money supply is 23 trillion and 416 billion 325 million US dollars and the actual value is $223540 billion; the equilibrium value of GDP is 10 trillion and 963 billion 31 million US dollars and the actual value is $108648 billion. This indicates that the economy of our country is growing at the present stage. The current stage of our country's weak economic growth and the low efficiency of currency has been demonstrated. Therefore, at the present stage, when the monetary policy and fiscal policy are used to regulate macroeconomic growth, our country should focus on monetary policy, supplemented by fiscal policy, and make continuous camera selection and directional control. The economy is guaranteed to run in a reasonable range.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.0;F822.0;F124.1

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