中国省级财政预算执行偏差的研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 08:48

本文选题：预算执行偏差 + 省级财政　；参考：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：财政预算执行,也称为政府预算实施,是政府依照经法定程序审查和批准的预算收支计划安排政府活动,以实现政府职能的过程。预算执行将预算由计划变为现实,是预算的具体实施步骤,也是整个预算管理工作的关键环节。政府在执行预算的过程中,由于受到主观和客观因素的影响而未能或超额完成预算,导致决算与预算出现偏差,就产生了预算执行偏差。预算编制过程中对经济形势、社会需求的判断不准确导致预算计划与现实经济情况不符,编制者有意识地少报或多报预算,以及预算执行过程中出现的临时预算调整等情况,都是导致预算执行出现偏差的原因。预算执行偏差体现出预算的软约束问题,说明政府的收支活动未能得到有效约束和监督,不利于政府良性运营,也对政府的公信力造成损害。本文主要就财政决算收支与预算收支的偏差情况研究预算执行偏差。从中国财政预算执行偏差的整体情况和地区特点出发,对全国31个省、直辖市、自治区(不含港澳台)的预算执行偏差情况进行深入分析。对影响我国省级预算执行偏差的经济、社会、政治因素进行了实证研究及案例分析,并基于影响程度的大小,对统计分析的结果做出合理的经济学解释。同时,结合国外预算制度比较和现有预算改革经验,对现行制度改进提出政策建议。从研究框架看,本文可以分为三部分。第一部分是基础理论分析,包括第一章和第二章,是对文章整体思路和理论依据的大致介绍；首先,基于目前国内现状阐述了本文的选题背景及研究意义,表明预算执行偏差问题研究的意义；其次,简要介绍了本文研究思路和研究方法,论证了结论的客观性和科学性；最后,综述预算执行偏差相关的中外文献,展示了目前国内外预算执行研究成果,分析了基于省级数据对我国预算执行情况进行实证研究的可行性、研究意义、创新和不足。本文以政府职能理论、财政分权、预算管理理论为理论基础,探讨地方政府在现有权责分配下如何通过有效的预算管理以实现地方政府职能。第二部分是实证分析,包括第三、四章。首先结合全国31个地区共计14年的预算收支执行偏差数据,对全国和各地区财政预算收支执行偏差现状进行分析。采用ward离差方法进行聚类统计,列示并分析不同执行偏差情况地区的特点。其次,将1998-2011年省级预算收支执行偏差额作为因变量,收入、消费、投资、人口等方面的显著指标作为自变量,进行回归分析,探讨对预算执行偏差显著影响的因素以及影响情况。分别通过面板模型、案例分析的方法,对影响预算执行偏差的经济、社会、政治因素进行分析研究,对预算编制提供相关数据支持和理论依据。研究显示,居民消费价格指数、利率、自然人口增长率对预算收入执行偏差的影响较为显著,预算收入执行偏差则直接影响预算支出执行偏差。政治因素对预算执行偏差也有重要的影响,主要体现在中央与地方财政权责分配不匹配、预算管理法制不完善、预算报告与人大审批时间断档、预算透明度不足造成的监督缺位以及委托代理下的利益冲突。第三部分是研究结论及政策建议,包括第五、六章。梳理全文脉络,提出研究结论。在全文对预算执行偏差进行主客观影响因素分析和国外预算制度比较分析的基础上,从预算编制、预算执行和预算监督三个方面总结归纳对于现行制度的改革建议。
[Abstract]:The implementation of the budget, also called the implementation of the government budget, is the process of arranging the government activities in accordance with the budget revenue and expenditure plan reviewed and approved by the legal procedures. The budget implementation changes the budget from the plan to the reality. It is the specific implementation step of the budget and the key link of the whole budget management. The government is carrying out the implementation of the budget. In the process of budget, due to the influence of subjective and objective factors, the budget has not been completed or overdone, which leads to the deviation between the final accounts and the budget, which leads to the deviation of the budget execution. The inaccurate judgment of the economic situation and the social demand in the process of budget compilation leads to the discrepancy between the budget plan and the actual economic situation, and the compilers are consciously less reported. The budget execution, as well as the interim budget adjustment in the process of the budget execution, are the reasons for the deviation of the budget execution. The budget execution deviation reflects the soft constraints of the budget, indicating that the government's revenue and expenditure activities have not been effectively constrained and supervised, which are unfavorable to the government's benign operation and the government's credibility. Damage.
This paper studies the deviation of budget execution mainly on the deviation of revenue and expenditure and budget revenue and expenditure. Starting from the overall situation and regional characteristics of the fiscal budget execution deviation in China, this paper makes an in-depth analysis on the budget execution deviation of the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China. On the basis of economic, social and political factors, this paper makes an empirical study and case analysis, and makes a reasonable economic explanation for the results of statistical analysis based on the size of the influence. At the same time, it puts forward some policy suggestions on the improvement of the current system in combination with the comparison of the foreign budget system and the experience of the existing budget reform.
From the research framework, this paper can be divided into three parts. The first part is the basic theory analysis, including the first and second chapters. It is a general introduction to the overall thinking and theoretical basis of the article. Firstly, the background and significance of the topic are expounded based on the current domestic status, and the significance of the study on the budget execution deviation is shown. Secondly, This paper briefly introduces the research ideas and methods of this study, demonstrates the objectivity and scientificity of the conclusion. Finally, it summarizes the Chinese and foreign literature related to the budget execution deviation, and shows the results of the research on budget execution at home and abroad, and analyzes the feasibility, significance and innovation of the empirical study based on provincial data on the implementation of our budget. On the basis of the theory of government function, fiscal decentralization and budget management, this paper discusses how the local government can achieve local government functions through effective budget management under the existing power and responsibility allocation.
The second part is an empirical analysis, including third, fourth chapters. First, it analyzes the current situation of the fiscal budget execution deviation in the country and each region by combining the data of the budget execution deviation of the total 31 regions of the country for 14 years. The ward deviation method is used for clustering statistics to show and analyze the characteristics of the areas with different execution deviations. Secondly, 1 The 998-2011 year provincial budget revenue and expenditure deviation amount as the dependent variable, income, consumption, investment, population and so on as the independent variable, carries on the regression analysis, and probes into the factors that influence the budget execution deviation and its influence. The economy which affects the budget execution deviation through the panel model and the case analysis method respectively. The analysis and research of social and political factors provide relevant data support and theoretical basis for budgeting. The study shows that the consumer price index, interest rate, natural population growth rate have a significant impact on the budget revenue execution deviation, and the budget revenue execution deviation directly affects the budget expenditure execution deviation. Political factors carry out the budget execution. The deviation also has important influence, mainly reflected in the mismatch between the central and local financial power and responsibility distribution, the imperfect budget management legal system, the budget report and the time of approval of the people's Congress, the lack of supervision caused by the lack of budget transparency and the conflict of interest under the principal-agent.
The third part is the research conclusion and policy recommendations, including fifth, sixth chapters, combing the full text context and putting forward the research conclusions. On the basis of the analysis of the subjective and objective factors affecting the budget execution deviation and the comparison and analysis of the foreign budget system in the full text, the current system is summarized and summarized from three aspects of budget compilation, budget execution and pre budget supervision. Suggestions for reform.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.3

【参考文献】