“新常态”下我国积极财政政策的政策空间——基于财政可持续性的研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 11:22

本文选题：政府部门债务 + 向量误差修正模型　；参考：《经济学家》2017年08期

【摘要】：本文使用向量误差修正模型(VECM)以及情景模拟方法对我国公共财政的可持续性进行分析,并在此基础上分析了"新常态"条件下我国扩张型财政政策的政策空间。实证分析的结论显示,我国政府部门存在较好的财政纪律有助于避免债务负担率的无限上升;同时,目前债务和赤字率的上升会随着未来经济增速的恢复自动下降,不会对我国经济造成实质性损害。情景模拟的结论也显示,随着未来扩张型财政政策的推行,未来五年我国财政赤字率将处在4%—5%的范围,而政府部门债务率将处于60%—70%高负债区间,但我国政府部门债务仍具有较强的可持续性。面对"新常态"的挑战,未来我国扩张型财政政策应以实现结构性调整和服务供给侧改革为目标,同时注重防范财政风险向金融部门的蔓延。
[Abstract]:This paper uses vector error correction model (VECM) and scenario simulation to analyze the sustainability of China's public finance, and on this basis, analyzes the policy space of China's expansionary fiscal policy under the "new normal" condition. The conclusion of the empirical analysis shows that the existence of good fiscal discipline in Chinese government departments can help to avoid the unlimited increase of debt burden rate, and at the same time, the increase of debt and deficit rate will automatically decrease with the recovery of economic growth in the future. It will not cause substantial damage to our economy. The conclusion of the scenario simulation also shows that, with the implementation of the future expansionary fiscal policy, the fiscal deficit rate of our country will be in the range of 4% to 5% in the next five years, and the debt ratio of government departments will be in the range of 60%-70% high debt. However, our government debt still has a strong sustainability. In the face of the challenge of "new normal", the future expansionary fiscal policy of our country should aim at realizing structural adjustment and service supply-side reform, and at the same time pay attention to preventing the spread of fiscal risk to the financial sector.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“内生汇率传递下国际冲击对中国通货膨胀的动态影响”(71303256) 国家社会科学基金重大项目招标课题“外部冲击和结构性转换下的中高速增长和中高端发展研究”(15ZDC010)
【分类号】：F812.0

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