基于CGE模型的我国燃料乙醇产业财政政策研究

发布时间：2018-06-22 14:00

本文选题：燃料乙醇 + 财政政策　；参考：《中国地质大学（北京）》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：生物燃料是重要的可再生能源。为应对国际能源供需矛盾、环境污染加剧的挑战，生物燃料已成为21世纪全球液体燃料最大的增长源之一，其中燃料乙醇产量约占全球生物燃料总产量的3/4。目前，我国燃料乙醇产量还无法满足国内需求，供需缺口巨大，距离完成2020年燃料乙醇1000万吨的年生产量目标还有很大的差距。为了提高燃料乙醇生产企业的积极性，充分利用生产产能，相应的鼓励政策宜尽快出台。本文以燃料乙醇为研究对象,对我国非粮乙醇产业的财政政策进行理论分析和政策框架设计，运用一般均衡模型（CGE）进行政策仿真模拟，最后提出支持燃料乙醇产业的财政政策建议。本文取得的主要研究成果和创新点如下。 1.系统分析了燃料乙醇产业财政政策选择的影响因素。应用外部性理论搭建了乙醇产业链上的政策需求的理论依据。创新地运用了政策网络的罗茨模型构建了生物燃料乙醇产业的政策网络，并阐析了网络主体间的互动关系，建立了这种互动关系对当前政策设计影响机理；创新性地应用Howlett和Ramesh的政策工具理论对我国生物燃料乙醇产业已经出台的相关政策内容分三阶段依据自愿性政策、强制性政策和混合型政策进行分类梳理和分析。基于理论基础，进行了产业政策设计影响因素的系统分析。 2.设计了燃料乙醇产业财政政策的框架。通过对比美国、巴西、欧盟等乙醇产业发展较好的国家的政策支持经验，认为财政税收政策是该产业发展的必然选择，但是政策工具的应用需要结合本国的实际。然后从加强政策工具的互补性、发挥混合型政策工具的作用、进一步向非粮食为原料的乙醇生产倾斜三个方面设计了我国燃料乙醇产业财政政策框架。 3.进行了燃料乙醇产业财政政策的模拟评价。论文在政策评价方面，构建了燃料乙醇产业的CGE模型。在数据基础上面，构建了2010年中国社会宏观社会核算矩阵（SAM）。依据宏观SAM表，通过合理的拆分、合并形成了研究需要的细分的24部门SAM表。接着从原料种植和工业生产两个阶段设计了财政政策情景，并运用构建的CGE模型进行了政策模拟与评价。 4.依据研究结果提出了促进燃料乙醇产业发展的财政政策建议。研究发现在非粮种植业阶段和生产阶段给与财政补贴都会促进燃料乙醇产量和乙醇汽油产量增长，，虽然生产阶段的促进作用相对更大，但是在生产阶段进行补贴会引起农村和城镇居民收入的小幅减少，而非粮种植业阶段的补贴能够提高农民的收入。同时，对于宏观经济的影响也有差异。论文提出了构建互补性的阶段财政政策工具组合，丰富财政政策支持手段；进一步支持非粮乙醇原料种植技术和生产技术创新；在全国进一步推广燃料乙醇的使用和提高燃料乙醇在车用汽油的添加比例的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Biofuels are important renewable energy sources. In order to meet the challenge of international energy supply and demand and environmental pollution, biofuel has become one of the largest sources of liquid fuel growth in the 21st century, in which ethanol production accounts for about 3 / 4 of the total global biofuel production. At present, the production of fuel ethanol in China can not meet the domestic demand, the gap between supply and demand is huge, and there is still a big gap between the annual production target of 10 million tons of fuel ethanol by 2020. In order to improve the enthusiasm of fuel ethanol production enterprises and make full use of production capacity, the corresponding incentive policy should be issued as soon as possible. This paper takes fuel ethanol as the research object, carries on the theoretical analysis and the policy frame design to our country non-grain ethanol industry financial policy, uses the general equilibrium model (CGE) to carry on the policy simulation. Finally, it puts forward the financial policy suggestions to support the fuel ethanol industry. The main achievements and innovations of this paper are as follows. 1. The factors influencing the choice of fiscal policy in fuel ethanol industry are analyzed systematically. The theoretical basis of policy demand in ethanol industry chain is established by applying externality theory. The policy network of biofuel ethanol industry is constructed by using the Roots model of policy network innovatively, and the interactive relationship among network subjects is analyzed, and the influence mechanism of this interaction on current policy design is established. Based on Howlett and Ramesh's policy tool theory, the related policy contents of biofuel ethanol industry in China are classified and analyzed in three stages according to voluntary policy, mandatory policy and mixed policy. Based on the theoretical basis, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the influencing factors of industrial policy design. 2. The framework of financial policy of fuel ethanol industry is designed. By comparing the policy support experience of the United States, Brazil, European Union and other countries with good ethanol industry development, it is concluded that fiscal and tax policies are the inevitable choice for the development of the industry, but the application of policy tools should be combined with the actual situation in our country. Then the fiscal policy framework of China's fuel ethanol industry is designed from three aspects: strengthening the complementarity of policy tools, exerting the role of mixed policy tools, and further tilting to the ethanol production of non-grain as raw materials. The financial policy of fuel ethanol industry was simulated and evaluated. In the aspect of policy evaluation, the CGE model of fuel ethanol industry is constructed. On the basis of data, the 2010 China Social Macrosocial Accounting Matrix (SAM) is constructed. According to the macro SAM table, the 24 department SAM table is formed by reasonable splitting. Then the fiscal policy scenarios are designed from the two stages of raw material planting and industrial production, and the policy simulation and evaluation are carried out by using the CGE model. 4. Based on the research results, the paper puts forward some financial policy suggestions to promote the development of fuel ethanol industry. The study found that financial subsidies in both the non-grain stage and the production stage promoted the growth of fuel ethanol production and ethanol gasoline production, although the contribution of the production phase was relatively greater. However, subsidies in the production stage will lead to a small decrease in the income of rural and urban residents, while subsidies in the stage of non-grain planting can increase the income of farmers. At the same time, the impact of macroeconomic differences. The paper puts forward to construct complementary fiscal policy tool combination to enrich fiscal policy support means, to further support non-grain ethanol raw material planting technology and production technology innovation; Further popularize the use of fuel ethanol and increase the proportion of fuel ethanol in vehicle gasoline.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F426.72;F812.0

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