中国预算余额的多维测度——基于跨年度平衡视角的考察

发布时间：2018-07-01 13:40

本文选题：预算余额 + 跨年度平衡　；参考：《财经问题研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：政府财政的可持续性问题,与预算体系及其运转模式密切相关,同时也是中国政府预算改革和发展中面临的重要挑战。作为体现财政收入和支出间差异水平的预算余额,既包含着政府相机抉择预算政策对收支关系所产生的影响,又融合了因经济内生波动而产生的结果。在构建跨年度预算平衡机制的过程中,厘清预算余额中的周期性成分和结构性成分是不可或缺的环节,亦是执行和调整中期财政规划的重要指标。本文在系统梳理预算余额测算方法及实践模式的基础上,结合中国财税体制特点并基于跨年度平衡的视角,考察中国自九五计划至十二五规划间的周期性预算余额和结构性预算余额,为中长期预算政策的制定和实施提供参考,以期对跨年度预算平衡的理论研究与机制构建有所裨益,从而有效增强多年度视野下政府预算决策的稳健性,推进中国财政的可持续发展。
[Abstract]:The sustainability of government finance is closely related to the budget system and its operating mode, and is also an important challenge in the budget reform and development of the Chinese government. The budget balance, which reflects the difference between fiscal revenue and expenditure, not only includes the influence of government budget policy on the relationship between revenue and expenditure, but also integrates the result of endogenous fluctuation of economy. In the process of constructing the inter-annual budget balance mechanism, it is an indispensable link to clarify the cyclical and structural elements in the budget balance, as well as an important index to implement and adjust the medium-term fiscal planning. On the basis of systematically combing the calculation methods and practical models of budget balance, this paper combines the characteristics of China's fiscal and taxation system and the perspective of cross-annual balance. By examining the periodic budget balance and the structural budget balance between the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the 12th Five-Year Plan in China, this paper provides a reference for the formulation and implementation of medium- and long-term budget policies, with a view to contributing to the theoretical research and mechanism construction of cross-annual budget balance. In order to effectively enhance the stability of government budget decision-making under the vision of many years, promote the sustainable development of Chinese finance.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国的政府间事权与支出责任划分研究”(16ZDA066)
【分类号】：F812.3

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