“新常态”时期中国财政政策调控模式研究

发布时间：2018-07-09 11:27

本文选题：财政政策 + 经济增长　；参考：《现代经济探讨》2017年10期

【摘要】：该文主要以1996年第1季度—2017年第1季度的财政政策和经济增长等数据为基础,运用MS-VAR模型研究了不同区制下,财政支出和财政收入对通货膨胀和经济增长的作用机制。从中主要得出两方面的结论,一方面是财政政策的作用发挥依赖于经济发展所处的阶段,根据我国实际情况区制变量将样本期间内的经济划分为"低速增长"时期(区制1)、"适速增长"时期(区制2)和"高速增长"(区制3)时期,就稳定性而言,区制1最优,区制2次之,区制3最弱,就财政支出的冲击效果和减小速度而言,区制2最显著,区制3中次之,区制1中最弱。另一方面是减少财政收入在区制1中的效果较好,增加财政收入在区制2和区制3中的效果较好。由此在"新常态"时期给出了两方面的政策建议,一方面是目前政府应该采取以减少财政收入为主的财政政策,以扩大财政支出型的财政政策为辅,另一方面是政府继续发挥财政政策的局部着力作用,进一步优化财政支出和收入结构。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of fiscal policy and economic growth from the first quarter of 1996 to the first quarter of 2017, this paper uses the MS-VAR model to study the mechanism of the effect of fiscal expenditure and revenue on inflation and economic growth under different regional systems. Two main conclusions are drawn. On the one hand, the role of fiscal policy depends on the stage in which economic development takes place. According to the actual situation of our country, the economy in the sample period is divided into three periods: the period of "low speed growth" (region system 1), the period of "appropriate speed growth period" (region system 2) and the period of "high speed growth" (region system 3). In terms of stability, the region system 1 is the best. In terms of the impact effect and decreasing speed of fiscal expenditure, the region system 2 was the most significant, the region system 3 was the second, and the region system 1 was the weakest. On the other hand, the effect of reducing fiscal revenue in district system 1 is better than that of increasing fiscal revenue in district system 2 and district system 3. Therefore, during the "new normal" period, two policy suggestions were put forward. On the one hand, the government should adopt fiscal policies that focus on reducing fiscal revenues, supplemented by fiscal policies that expand the pattern of fiscal expenditure. On the other hand, the government continues to exert the partial focus of fiscal policy and further optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure and revenue.
【作者单位】：东北师范大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F812.0

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