奈特不确定下跨国直接投资和税收政策问题的研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 02:32

本文选题：含糊 + 跨国直接投资　；参考：《安徽工程大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：假设一家外国公司面临选择出口产品,还是进入外国市场直接投资生产销售的问题。由于很难预测东道国经济、政治的稳定性,所以就存在对其市场预测的不确定性。而如果公司选择跨国直接投资,将会面临更多的不确定,这将会对投资决策产生一定的影响。所以我们将Knight不确定性引入模型。另一方面,通过对经济现状的分析不难发现,汇率变动、通胀等对跨国直接投资和税收政策问题都存在一定程度的影响。因此,我们在研究Knight不确定性对跨国直接投资和税收政策影响的基础上,又分别考虑了汇率变动、服从均值回复的汇率变动和通胀等因素,建立符合现实经济状况的模型,可以为跨国公司决策提供更有效的理论分析依据。本论文主要研究了一家公司在含糊环境下分别考虑通胀、汇率变动及服从均值回复过程的汇率变动的跨国直接投资(FDI)和税收政策问题。在第二章中,我们研究了带通胀的跨国直接投资问题。利用伊藤公式推导出含糊下GDP水平变化的动力学方程。然后结合公司进行跨国投资决策时需要缴纳的法人税,给定跨国直接投资的价值,并在跨国直接投资价值最大化标准下,分析了公司进行(不可逆)跨国直接投资的最优时间,通过解HJB方程推导出了公司由出口转向跨国直接投资时的最优GDP水平。最后进行数值模拟,定量分析了预期通胀率和含糊等参数对公司跨国直接投资策略的影响。在第三章中,我们探讨了汇率变动为随机情形下的跨国直接投资和税收政策问题。首先利用上面的推导方法得出公司由出口转向跨国直接投资时的最优GDP水平,推导了东道国的最优税收政策。其次我们还分别讨论了合作博弈和非合作博弈情形下的临界GDP水平,以及东道国政府和外国公司所得的利润。最后分析了含糊和汇率变动等参数对合作博弈和非合作博弈这两种情形下跨国直接投资决策的影响。在第四章中,假设汇率变动服从均值回复过程,利用上面的推导方法得出跨国直接投资的最优GDP水平,并分析了此时含糊、汇率和回复参数等对公司跨国直接投资的影响。结果表明：相比较于汇率变动为随机情形,外国公司的跨国直接投资决策会很大程度上受到东道国政府的干预力度影响,因此他们会更加关注东道国的调控政策,确定进入东道国市场的最优时间,以获取更大的收益。
[Abstract]:Suppose a foreign company is faced with the question of whether to choose exports or direct investment in production and sales in foreign markets. Because it is difficult to predict the economic and political stability of the host country, there is uncertainty about its market forecast. But if the company chooses the transnational direct investment, will face more uncertainty, this will have the certain influence to the investment decision. So we introduce Knight uncertainty into the model. On the other hand, it is not difficult to find that the change of exchange rate and inflation have some influence on the problems of transnational direct investment and tax policy. Therefore, on the basis of studying the influence of Knight uncertainty on transnational direct investment and tax policies, we have separately considered the exchange rate changes, followed by the exchange rate changes and inflation returned from the mean value, and established a model in line with the real economic situation. It can provide a more effective theoretical basis for multinational companies to make decisions. In this paper, we mainly study the problem of transnational direct investment (FDI) and tax policy which consider inflation, exchange rate change and exchange rate change under vague environment. In the second chapter, we study the problem of transnational direct investment with inflation. The dynamics equation of GDP level change under vagueness is derived by using Ito formula. Then combined with the corporate tax that the company has to pay when making the transnational investment decision, given the value of the transnational direct investment, and under the criterion of maximizing the value of the transnational direct investment, we analyze the optimal time for the company to make the (irreversible) transnational direct investment. By solving the HJB equation, the optimal GDP level of the company from export to transnational direct investment is derived. Finally, numerical simulation is carried out to quantitatively analyze the effect of expected inflation rate and ambiguity on firms' transnational direct investment strategy. In the third chapter, we discuss the transnational direct investment and tax policy under the stochastic exchange rate. Firstly, the optimal GDP level of the company from export to transnational direct investment is obtained by using the above derivation method, and the optimal tax policy of the host country is deduced. Secondly, we also discuss the critical GDP level in cooperative game and non-cooperative game respectively, and the profit of host government and foreign company. Finally, the paper analyzes the influence of vague parameters and exchange rate changes on the decision making of transnational direct investment in the case of cooperative game and non-cooperative game. In the fourth chapter, assuming the exchange rate change from the mean return process, the above derivation method is used to obtain the optimal GDP level of transnational direct investment, and the effects of ambiguity, exchange rate and return parameters on the firms' transnational direct investment are analyzed. The results show that, compared with the random exchange rate changes, foreign companies' transnational direct investment decisions will be greatly influenced by the host government's intervention, so they will pay more attention to the host country's regulatory policies. Determine the optimal time to enter the host market to achieve greater returns.
【学位授予单位】：安徽工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F812.42

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