转型期中国公共风险指数测度及财政治理效应评估

发布时间：2018-07-13 13:41

【摘要】：随着市场经济的发展、社会结构的变动和利益关系的多元化,当前中国公共风险问题日益凸显。公共风险的产生主要源于社会资源分配不当所引发的社会冲突,而政府治理尤其是财政资源调控显得尤为重要。对此,本文首先借鉴相关理论模型并进行数值模拟,分析公共风险是如何在资源配置不当和社会冲突之间产生的以及政府治理的重要性;其次构建中国公共风险指标体系,采用主成分分析对1995~2012年的中国公共风险指数进行评估;最后从表征政府管治水平的财政支出结构角度探讨公共风险的治理绩效。本文认为,当政府治理力度较大,社会冲突较不易发生,公共风险相应就小,反之亦然;而转型期中国的公共风险水平基本上呈现出波动中上升的态势,而这主要由经济型风险带来的,同时行政型风险、社会型风险、环境型风险一直处在稳步增长的过程之中;不同类型的公共支出与公共风险呈现出不同的关系,以调整财政结构为导向的政府治理可以有效的预防和应对公共风险。
[Abstract]:With the development of market economy, the change of social structure and the diversification of interest relationship, the problem of public risk in China is becoming increasingly prominent. The emergence of public risks mainly stems from the social conflicts caused by improper allocation of social resources, and government governance, especially the regulation of financial resources, is particularly important. For this reason, this paper first draws lessons from the relevant theoretical models and carries on the numerical simulation, analyzes how the public risk arises between the improper allocation of resources and the social conflict, and the importance of the government governance; secondly, constructs the Chinese public risk index system. The principal component analysis (PCA) is used to evaluate China's public risk index from 1995 to 2012, and finally, the governance performance of public risk is discussed from the perspective of the fiscal expenditure structure which characterizes the level of government governance. This paper holds that when the government has strong governance and social conflicts are not easy to occur, the public risk is relatively small, and vice versa; and the level of public risk in China during the transition period basically shows a trend of rising in fluctuation. This is mainly brought about by the economic risk, and at the same time, the administrative risk, the social risk and the environmental risk have been in the process of steady growth; different types of public expenditure and public risk show different relations. To adjust the financial structure of government governance can effectively prevent and deal with public risks.
【作者单位】：中南财经政法大学财税学院;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【分类号】：F812

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