基于VAR模型的中国经济发展与税收的动态关系研究
发布时间：2018-07-17 18:55
【摘要】：随着经济水平的不断提升，经济状况逐渐由“量”的增加向“质”的飞跃转变。经济可持续发展离不开税收政策的支持，政府可以通过税收政策调节经济发展。税收乘数理论阐释税收的增长引起经济反向增长规律，因而，研究经济发展与税收的关系，把握两者的联动关系，为实现经济发展提供有力的税收政策建议。 本文从税收负担和税收结构的角度，，分析分税制后经济发展与税收的关系。基于卡斯.库普曼模型和巴罗模型分别研究经济发展与税收的静态关系，得出税收负担对经济发展呈现反向作用，税收结构中流转税与所得税对绿色GDP作用机制相反。通过对绿色GDP、税收负担及主体税收数据的平稳性检验，协整分析数据间的长期均衡关系；用格兰杰因果检验绿色GDP、主体税收与税收负担间因果关系，并建立VAR模型分析经济发展与税收负担、经济发展与主体税收的动态关系。最后，提出适应经济发展的税收可持续政策。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of economic level, the economic situation has gradually changed from the increase of quantity to the leap of quality. Sustainable economic development can not be separated from the support of tax policy, the government can adjust economic development through tax policy. The theory of tax multiplier explains the law of economic growth caused by the growth of tax revenue. Therefore, to study the relationship between economic development and tax revenue, to grasp the linkage between them, and to provide effective tax policy suggestions for the realization of economic development. From the perspective of tax burden and tax structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic development and taxation after tax sharing. Based on Cass. Kupman model and Barrow model respectively study the static relationship between economic development and tax revenue. It is concluded that tax burden has a negative effect on economic development, and the mechanism of turnover tax and income tax on green GDP is opposite in tax structure. By testing the stability of green GDP, tax burden and principal tax data, cointegration analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the data, Granger causality test green GDP, the causal relationship between tax revenue and tax burden, A VAR model is established to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic development and tax burden, and between economic development and tax revenue. Finally, it puts forward the sustainable tax policy to adapt to the economic development.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F812.42;F224
本文编号：2130615
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of economic level, the economic situation has gradually changed from the increase of quantity to the leap of quality. Sustainable economic development can not be separated from the support of tax policy, the government can adjust economic development through tax policy. The theory of tax multiplier explains the law of economic growth caused by the growth of tax revenue. Therefore, to study the relationship between economic development and tax revenue, to grasp the linkage between them, and to provide effective tax policy suggestions for the realization of economic development. From the perspective of tax burden and tax structure, this paper analyzes the relationship between economic development and taxation after tax sharing. Based on Cass. Kupman model and Barrow model respectively study the static relationship between economic development and tax revenue. It is concluded that tax burden has a negative effect on economic development, and the mechanism of turnover tax and income tax on green GDP is opposite in tax structure. By testing the stability of green GDP, tax burden and principal tax data, cointegration analysis of the long-term equilibrium relationship between the data, Granger causality test green GDP, the causal relationship between tax revenue and tax burden, A VAR model is established to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic development and tax burden, and between economic development and tax revenue. Finally, it puts forward the sustainable tax policy to adapt to the economic development.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F124;F812.42;F224
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