财政规模、不良贷款与金融业发展的关系探讨

发布时间：2018-07-20 13:22

【摘要】：本文利用2004~2013年的季度数据,通过基于GMM方法的联立方程模型,系统分析了我国政府财政规模、商业银行不良贷款和金融发展三者之间的相互关系。本文得出的结论为:在信贷资源向大型国有企业倾斜背景下,较低的不良贷款率可增加对国有企业的信贷支持从而扩大财政规模。反过来,我国政府财政规模的扩大使其也有能力消化因为商业银行行使财政职能而造成的不良贷款,降低商业银行的不良贷款率。可是,我国政府财政规模的扩大却无法促进我国金融行业的发展,同时金融业的发展也无法有效避免不良贷款的增加。金融业的发展需要依赖于金融中介配置效率的提高,在我国商业银行现行风险管理水平下,商业银行存贷比的提高将会导致商业银行不良贷款的增加,不良贷款率的增加反过来会限制商业银行对国有企业的信贷支持,减少我国的财政收入同时也会抑制我国金融业的发展。因此,切实需要提高商业银行的风险管理水平,提高资本配置效率,促进经济社会与金融行业的健康稳定发展。
[Abstract]:Based on the quarterly data from 2004 to 2013 and the simultaneous equation model based on the GMM method, this paper systematically analyzes the relationship among the financial scale of our government, non-performing loans of commercial banks and financial development. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: under the background that the credit resources incline to the large state-owned enterprises, the low non-performing loan ratio can increase the credit support to the state-owned enterprises and expand the financial scale. On the other hand, the expansion of our government's financial scale enables it to digest the non-performing loans caused by the financial functions of commercial banks and reduce the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks. However, the expansion of government financial scale can not promote the development of financial industry in China, and the development of financial industry can not effectively avoid the increase of non-performing loans. The development of financial industry depends on the improvement of the efficiency of financial intermediary allocation. Under the current risk management level of commercial banks in China, the increase of deposit / loan ratio of commercial banks will lead to the increase of non-performing loans of commercial banks. In turn, the increase of non-performing loan ratio will restrict the credit support of commercial banks to state-owned enterprises, reduce the financial revenue of our country, and also restrain the development of our financial industry. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the risk management level of commercial banks, improve the efficiency of capital allocation, and promote the healthy and stable development of economic, social and financial industries.
【作者单位】：暨南大学;
【分类号】：F812.2;F832.4

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