新常态下促进创业就业与完善分税制改革的思考

发布时间：2018-08-14 16:00

【摘要】：本文运用空间误差面板模型分析中国1978~2012年就业弹性系数为0.36,与发展中国家平均约在0.3~0.4之间基本一致,表明其经济增长与就业关系在总体上合乎奥肯定律;而自1995年以来就业弹性逐年减弱,近几年甚至出现高增长城镇登记失业率反而攀升的现象,主要是由于服务业逐渐上升为主导产业但却受制于城镇化与市场化改革严重滞后,造成其GDP和就业人员在三次产业中所占比例还只有一般市场经济国家的50%左右所致。由此可见经济发展新常态即市场经济新常态,中国特色社会主义市场经济的不同在于所有制主体而不在方法体制,唯有结合国情实行与一般市场经济分税制接轨的政府间人均财力的均衡,促使全国市场统一和"用脚投票"的流动性规律发生作用,让作为市场化城镇化晴雨表的服务业巨大发展活力与潜能充分释放出来,才能确保新常态下充分就业和促进经济中高速稳健增长。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the spatial error panel model is used to analyze that the employment elasticity coefficient of China from 1978 to 2012 is 0.36, which is basically consistent with the average of 0.3 ~ 0.4 in developing countries, which indicates that the relationship between economic growth and employment conforms to Okun's law in general. Since 1995, the employment elasticity has weakened year by year. In recent years, the registered unemployment rate of high growth cities and towns has even increased. The main reason is that the service industry is gradually rising as the leading industry, but it is restricted by the serious lag between urbanization and market-oriented reform. The proportion of GDP and employed personnel in the three industries is only about 50% of that in general market economy countries. It can be seen that the new normal of economic development is the new normal of market economy. The difference of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics lies in the main body of ownership rather than in the method system. Only by carrying out the balance of the per capita financial resources of the governments in line with the general market economy tax system in accordance with the national conditions, can we promote the unification of the national market and the liquidity law of "voting with the feet". Only when the service industry, as a barometer of market-oriented urbanization, can fully release its tremendous development vitality and potential, can it ensure full employment under the new normal state and promote the rapid and steady growth of the economy.
【作者单位】：湖南商学院;长沙大学;中共湖南省委政策研究室;
【分类号】：F812.42;F249.2

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