碳税对江苏省宏观经济与碳减排的影响——基于CGE模型的模拟分析

发布时间：2018-08-29 11:12

【摘要】：征收碳税是发展低碳经济的有效手段。文章构建了经济、能源与二氧化碳排放9部门CGE模型,利用江苏省投入产出表编制了宏观和微观社会核算矩阵并开发了GAMS程序,模拟分析了碳税政策、不同碳税返还方式等情景对江苏宏观经济与碳排放的影响。结果表明:征收碳税将导致江苏实际GDP、社会福利下降,而名义GDP、居民收入、企业收入、政府收入上升;征收碳税将使得煤炭、石油和天然气等化石能源的消费量减少,而电力生产供应和消费增加;征收碳税明显降低了二氧化碳排放,排放强度随着碳税数额增加而下降;碳税抑制了高耗能行业发展,第三产业比重提高,产业结构优化;碳税返还给居民可以改善征收碳税的负面影响,弥补开征碳税造成的社会福利损失。
[Abstract]:Carbon tax is an effective means to develop low-carbon economy. In this paper, the CGE model of 9 sectors of economy, energy and carbon dioxide emission is constructed, the macro and micro social accounting matrix is compiled by using the input-output table of Jiangsu Province, and the GAMS program is developed, and the carbon tax policy is simulated and analyzed. The effects of different carbon tax return modes on Jiangsu's macro economy and carbon emissions. The results show that the levy of carbon tax will lead to the decrease of actual GDP, social welfare in Jiangsu, while the income of nominal GDP, residents, enterprise income and government income will increase, and the carbon tax will reduce the consumption of fossil energy such as coal, oil and natural gas. The carbon tax obviously reduces the carbon dioxide emission, and the emission intensity decreases with the increase of carbon tax amount. Carbon tax inhibits the development of high energy consuming industry, increases the proportion of tertiary industry, and optimizes the industrial structure. The return of the carbon tax to residents can improve the negative impact of the carbon tax and make up for the loss of social welfare caused by the introduction of the carbon tax.
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“多尺度空间视角下城市群的城镇化发展对碳排放的作用机理及其减排路径研究:以长三角为例”(71673270);国家自然科学基金项目“空间场视角下的中国能源基地可持续发展评价与优化”(71403268) 教育部人文社会科学研究项目“区域低碳发展指数构建及其应用”(14YJCZH146) 全国统计科学研究项目“时空效应视角下的区域低碳发展评价研究”(2014LZ26);全国统计科学研究项目“城市群城市低碳发展的空间差异与互动关系研究”(2015LY14)
【分类号】：F127;F812.42;X22

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