中国财政政策不确定性的指数构建、特征与诱因

发布时间：2018-08-30 15:06

【摘要】：目前文献关注的财政政策不确定性问题多是以总的财政政策和国外的数据为主,还没有文献讨论中国财政政策及其具体项目不确定性的指数构建问题。根据标准的指数统计方法和汉语中财政政策的语境特征,本文构建了中国的财政政策不确定性指数体系,并结合现实分析了数据的统计特征和影响不确定性的主要诱因。研究发现:首先,本文的指数结果是稳健的,且财政支出政策不确定性的程度高于税收政策;其次,财政政策不确定性指数具有明显的"区制转移"特征,存在"低平均值和低波动性"与"高平均值和高波动性"两个区制;再次,财政政策不确定性与经济增长、货币政策的不确定性存在相关性,研究中国财政政策不确定性有现实意义;最后,本国内部因素是影响财政政策不确定性的主要因素。
[Abstract]:At present, most of the financial policy uncertainties concerned by the literature are based on the total fiscal policy and foreign data, but there is no literature discussion on the construction of the index of the uncertainty of China's fiscal policy and its specific projects. Based on the standard exponential statistical method and the contextual characteristics of fiscal policy in Chinese, this paper constructs the uncertainty index system of fiscal policy in China, and analyzes the statistical characteristics of the data and the main inducements to affect the uncertainty. It is found that: first, the index result of this paper is stable, and the degree of uncertainty of fiscal expenditure policy is higher than that of tax policy; secondly, the index of fiscal policy uncertainty has obvious characteristics of "regional system transfer". There are two regional systems of "low average value and low volatility" and "high average value and high volatility". Thirdly, the uncertainty of fiscal policy is related to economic growth and the uncertainty of monetary policy. It is of practical significance to study the uncertainty of fiscal policy in China, and finally, the internal factors are the main factors affecting the uncertainty of fiscal policy.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学财政与税务学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“地方举债融资的经济效应与风险预警机制研究”(15CJY077) 江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助(2017.6-2020.7) 江苏省高校哲学社会科学基金项目“江苏城市举债融资的经济效应”(2015SJB136)
【分类号】：F812.0

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