中国财政可持续性研究：1978-2012
发布时间：2018-08-30 19:53
【摘要】：财政可持续性研究是财政政策可持续性研究的简称,它是宏观经济领域的一项重要课题,早在上世纪20年代就已经成为了西方国家财政研究的重点,但早期的研究对象多集中于欧洲发达国家。近年来,随着全球金融危机的爆发,欧洲各国的主权债务危机频繁上演,同时美国财政赤字持续上升、国债规模急剧增加、遭遇主权评级下降,财政可持续性堪忧,日本高额的赤字率和债务负担率也使其财政可持续性受到严重质疑。因此,财政可持续问题再一次成为全球理论界关注的热点。 2008年全球金融危机过后,为阻止经济下行、保证经济增长目标,我国也开始实行新一轮的积极财政政策,同时伴随而来的是不断增加的财政赤字和节节攀升的国债规模。不少机构、专家预测我国的国债规模在未来的几年内仍将持续升高,另外再加上大规模的地方政府债务、大量的或有负债以及即将面临的人口结构转变给经济发展和财政支出带来的压力,都将使我国的财政可持续性面临严峻的挑战。因此,为了了解我国财政的可持续状态,本文对我国的财政可持续性进行深入具体的研究,并以此来考查我国未来的财政稳定性和国债的信用风险,对我国接下来积极财政政策持续实施的宏观战略计划提供政策参考。 本文从界定财政可持续性的相关概念开始,首先明确了财政可持续性在文中的内涵,并且对政府债务的概念和范畴进行了阐述。同时,考察分析了改革开放以来我国的财政政策实践以及财政收支和赤字、国债的发展路径并通过赤字率、债务负担率等几个简单的相对指标对我国的财政可持续性状况进行初步的判断。 其次,本文从政府跨期预算约束的理论框架入手,根据Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012)的推导过程,通过实证检验的方法,利用Eviews6.0软件对我国1978-2012年期间的财政数据进行计量分析。结果表明,1978-2012年间我国的财政收入和支出之间确实存在协整关系,并且协整系数小于1。因此满足政府跨期预算约束条件,也就是说我国的财政政策在此期间是可持续的。但是,鉴于政府跨期预算约束模型存在明显的局限性,本文同时还运用Blanchard(1990)提出的可持续性缺口指标,根据Ales Krejdl(2006)的具体缺口指标推导过程,检验我国1995-2012年的财政可持续性状况,并对未来短期(1年)和中期(3年)的可持续性缺口进行预测,结果表明2008年以后我国的财政不可持续性风险明显加大。接着,本文还分析了未来可能会影响我国财政可持续性的几个主要风险因素,包括大规模的地方政府债务、政府最终可能承担的或有债务以及人口老龄化将会带来的社会保障支出缺口。 最后,对上文中的理论分析和实证检验结果进行进一步的分析总结,并针对上述可能会威胁我国未来财政可持续性的风险因素提出针对性的措施建议。
[Abstract]:Financial sustainability research is the abbreviation of fiscal policy sustainability research, it is an important subject in the macroeconomic field, as early as the 1920s has become the focus of financial research in western countries. But early studies focused on developed countries in Europe. In recent years, with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis of European countries frequently staged. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit of the United States continues to rise, the scale of the national debt increases sharply, the sovereign rating drops, and the financial sustainability is worrying. Japan's high deficit rate and debt burden rate also seriously questioned its fiscal sustainability. After the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to prevent the economic downturn and ensure the goal of economic growth, China has also begun to implement a new round of positive fiscal policy. It was accompanied by rising deficits and rising government debt. Many institutions, experts predict that the size of China's national debt will continue to rise in the next few years, in addition to large-scale local government debt. A large number of contingent liabilities and the pressure on economic development and fiscal expenditure brought by the imminent demographic transformation will make our country's fiscal sustainability face a severe challenge. Therefore, in order to understand the sustainable state of our country's finance, this paper carries on the thorough and concrete research on the financial sustainability of our country, and examines the future financial stability of our country and the credit risk of the national debt. It provides policy reference for the macro-strategic plan that our country carries out actively and continuously. This paper begins with the definition of fiscal sustainability, first defines the connotation of fiscal sustainability in this paper, and expounds the concept and category of government debt. At the same time, it examines and analyzes the fiscal policy practice, the fiscal revenue and expenditure, the deficit, the development path and the deficit rate of our country since the reform and opening up. Several simple relative indicators, such as debt burden ratio, are used to judge the financial sustainability of our country. Secondly, this paper starts with the theoretical framework of government inter-period budget constraint, according to the derivation process of Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012, through the method of empirical test, uses Eviews6.0 software to carry on the econometric analysis to our country's financial data from 1978 to 2012. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China from 1978 to 2012, and the cointegration coefficient is less than 1. Therefore, to meet the constraints of government intertemporal budget, that is to say, the fiscal policy of our country is sustainable in this period. However, in view of the obvious limitations of the inter-period budget constraint model of the government, this paper also uses the sustainability gap index proposed by Blanchard (1990), according to the derivation process of the specific gap index of Ales Krejdl (2006, to test the fiscal sustainability of our country from 1995 to 2012. The short (1 year) and medium term (3 years) of sustainability gap in the future are forecasted. The results show that the financial unsustainable risk is obviously increased after 2008 in China. Then, this paper also analyzes several major risk factors that may affect the fiscal sustainability of our country in the future, including large-scale local government debt. The government's eventual contingent liabilities and the gap in social security spending that will result from an ageing population. Finally, the theoretical analysis and empirical test results mentioned above are further analyzed and summarized, and suggestions are put forward for the risk factors mentioned above which may threaten the future financial sustainability of our country.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.9
本文编号：2214118
[Abstract]:Financial sustainability research is the abbreviation of fiscal policy sustainability research, it is an important subject in the macroeconomic field, as early as the 1920s has become the focus of financial research in western countries. But early studies focused on developed countries in Europe. In recent years, with the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the sovereign debt crisis of European countries frequently staged. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit of the United States continues to rise, the scale of the national debt increases sharply, the sovereign rating drops, and the financial sustainability is worrying. Japan's high deficit rate and debt burden rate also seriously questioned its fiscal sustainability. After the global financial crisis in 2008, in order to prevent the economic downturn and ensure the goal of economic growth, China has also begun to implement a new round of positive fiscal policy. It was accompanied by rising deficits and rising government debt. Many institutions, experts predict that the size of China's national debt will continue to rise in the next few years, in addition to large-scale local government debt. A large number of contingent liabilities and the pressure on economic development and fiscal expenditure brought by the imminent demographic transformation will make our country's fiscal sustainability face a severe challenge. Therefore, in order to understand the sustainable state of our country's finance, this paper carries on the thorough and concrete research on the financial sustainability of our country, and examines the future financial stability of our country and the credit risk of the national debt. It provides policy reference for the macro-strategic plan that our country carries out actively and continuously. This paper begins with the definition of fiscal sustainability, first defines the connotation of fiscal sustainability in this paper, and expounds the concept and category of government debt. At the same time, it examines and analyzes the fiscal policy practice, the fiscal revenue and expenditure, the deficit, the development path and the deficit rate of our country since the reform and opening up. Several simple relative indicators, such as debt burden ratio, are used to judge the financial sustainability of our country. Secondly, this paper starts with the theoretical framework of government inter-period budget constraint, according to the derivation process of Antonio AfonsoJoao Tovar Jalles (2012, through the method of empirical test, uses Eviews6.0 software to carry on the econometric analysis to our country's financial data from 1978 to 2012. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure in China from 1978 to 2012, and the cointegration coefficient is less than 1. Therefore, to meet the constraints of government intertemporal budget, that is to say, the fiscal policy of our country is sustainable in this period. However, in view of the obvious limitations of the inter-period budget constraint model of the government, this paper also uses the sustainability gap index proposed by Blanchard (1990), according to the derivation process of the specific gap index of Ales Krejdl (2006, to test the fiscal sustainability of our country from 1995 to 2012. The short (1 year) and medium term (3 years) of sustainability gap in the future are forecasted. The results show that the financial unsustainable risk is obviously increased after 2008 in China. Then, this paper also analyzes several major risk factors that may affect the fiscal sustainability of our country in the future, including large-scale local government debt. The government's eventual contingent liabilities and the gap in social security spending that will result from an ageing population. Finally, the theoretical analysis and empirical test results mentioned above are further analyzed and summarized, and suggestions are put forward for the risk factors mentioned above which may threaten the future financial sustainability of our country.
【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.9
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