X市财政预算执行进度预警预测的研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 11:24

【摘要】：近些年来,伴随我国GDP总量逐年增加,我国政府财政收支规模增长速度也连续多年高于GDP增长速度,每年财政支出规模也在不断扩大,从而带来财政对预算单位的支出安排了预算,但是预算单位的实际预算执行进度往往偏慢问题,造成财政资金长期闲置在各部门和单位,严重影响了预算执行的效率性和严肃性,一定程度上造成了财政资金的闲置和浪费。因此,加快财政预算执行进度,是提高财政资金运转效率,盘活存量资金的重要手段,也是目前财政预算执行管理部门急需解决的问题。本文首先具体分析了目前财政预算执行管理的现状,分析了目前存在的预算执行进度偏慢的问题及其原因,阐述了加快财政预算执行进度的必要性。其次,以X市2012年预算执行数据为基础,运用数据挖掘的方法通过建立决策树和神经网络模型,开展财政预算执行进度预警预测。另外,详细阐述了X市财政预算执行进度预警预测实施过程,结合X市财政预算执行管理具体实际从业务理解、数据理解、建立制度、统一数据标准、整合信息系统、提取数据、建立数据集市和数据仓库、建立数据质量体系、预算执行进度数据挖掘建立模型、模型评估、发布结果等方面进行分析。最后,总结前面所作出的分析预测,并对未来模型改善做出展望,以使财政预算执行管理更加科学化、精细化。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the increase of the total amount of GDP in China, the scale of our government's fiscal revenue and expenditure has been increasing faster than that of GDP for many years, and the scale of annual fiscal expenditure is also expanding. As a result, the expenditure of the budget units has been budgeted for, but the actual budget implementation progress of the budget units is often slow, resulting in the fiscal funds standing idle in various departments and units for a long time. It seriously affects the efficiency and seriousness of budget execution, and results in the idle and waste of financial funds to some extent. Therefore, speeding up the progress of financial budget implementation is an important means to improve the efficiency of financial funds operation and activate the stock funds, and is also an urgent problem to be solved by the financial budget execution management department at present. This paper first analyzes the current situation of budget execution and management, analyzes the problems and causes of the slow budget implementation, and expounds the necessity of speeding up the budget implementation. Secondly, based on the data of budget execution in X city in 2012, the prediction of budget implementation progress is carried out by establishing decision tree and neural network model by using the method of data mining. In addition, the implementation process of early warning and forecasting of financial budget implementation progress in X city is elaborated in detail. Combining with the actual situation of financial budget implementation management in X city, the system is established from the perspective of business understanding, data understanding, establishment of systems, unification of data standards, and integration of information systems. Data extraction, data Mart and data warehouse, data quality system, budget execution schedule data mining model, model evaluation, release results and so on are analyzed. Finally, this paper summarizes the analysis and forecast made before, and looks forward to the improvement of the future model in order to make the budget execution and management more scientific and refined.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.3

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