供给侧改革背景下政府投资思路研究

发布时间：2018-10-04 23:30

【摘要】：2008年金融危机后,我国经济发展步入“新常态”,经济发展面临转方式、调结构、促转型的严峻考验。长期以来,以需求为中心的经济发展模式导致了当前供给矛盾突出,加上世界经济低迷导致外需疲软,国内需求难以激发,以及“中等收入陷阱”的制约,整个社会的供给和需求之间矛盾加剧。2015年11月10日,习近平总书记在中央财经领导小组第十一次会议上强调,一方面要适度扩大社会总需求,同时要加强经济供给侧的结构性改革,注重提高整个供给体系的质量和效率,增强经济持续增长的动力。由此,供给侧结构性改革构想正式提出。政府投资在历次经济改革中都起到了重要作用。在计划经济时代,政府投资起到充分调动资源,实现我国由农业国家向工业国家的转变;在市场经济时代,政府投资发挥了对民间资本、海外资本的引导作用,实现了我国经济由计划经济到市场经济的转变,在经济危机中,政府投资起到了拉动经济,刺激经济复苏的作用。随着中国经济进入“新常态”,政府投资陷入困局,一方面,投资的回报率降低、杠杆率过高,另一方面,投资的结构性矛盾也愈发明显。政府投资于供给侧结构性改革具有重大联系,政府投资具有需求效应和供给效应,凯恩斯主义下的需求管理侧重政府投资的需求效应,把投资认作为是拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一。供给管理则更侧重资本、土地、劳动力、制度以及技术等供给侧要素。我国供给侧结构性改革明确提出了五项任务:去库存、去产能、去杠杆、降成本和补短板。本文在仔细梳理供给侧理论的发展脉络、主要思想和实践启示的基础上,结合政府投资内涵及历史作用,着重分析了我国当前政府投资的困局与不足之处,并将政府投资与供给侧结构性改革联系起来,认为政府投资是供给侧改革的一大着力点,与实现供给侧改革的五大任务(去库存、去产能、去杠杆、降成本和补短板)环环相扣。在新的经济环境和新的历史背景下,政府投资的目标及衡量其有效性的标准是能否有利于实现供给侧改革的五大任务。这五大任务可以分为两个部分:有效供给和无效供给,所以,概括的降,政府投资的方向是减少无效供给和增发有效供给。其思路是,在减少无效供给上,促进“去产能”、“去库存”、“去杠杆”的实现,优化存量、控制增量,以增量化解存量;在增大有效供给上,以“降成本”、“补短板”为路径,扩大企业的供给能力,提高政府公共服务能力。
[Abstract]:After the financial crisis in 2008, China's economic development has entered the "new normal", and the economic development is faced with the severe test of changing mode, adjusting structure and promoting transformation. For a long time, the demand-centric economic development model has led to outstanding supply contradictions, coupled with the weakening of external demand caused by the downturn in the world economy, the difficulty of stimulating domestic demand, and the constraints of the "middle-income trap." The contradiction between supply and demand in the whole society has intensified. On November 10, 2015, General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed at the 11th meeting of the Central leading Group on Finance and Economics that, on the one hand, it is necessary to appropriately expand the total social demand. At the same time, we should strengthen the structural reform on the supply side of the economy, pay attention to improving the quality and efficiency of the whole supply system, and strengthen the motive force of sustained economic growth. Thus, the concept of structural reform on the supply side was formally put forward. Government investment has played an important role in every economic reform. In the era of planned economy, government investment played an important role in mobilizing resources and transforming our country from an agricultural country to an industrial country. In the era of market economy, government investment played a leading role in private capital and overseas capital. In the economic crisis, government investment has played a role in stimulating the economy and stimulating economic recovery. As China's economy enters a "new normal", government investment is in trouble, with lower returns and overleveraged investment, and a growing structural contradiction. Government investment in supply-side structural reform has a significant link, government investment has demand and supply effects, Keynesian demand management focuses on the demand effect of government investment. Consider investment as one of the troika driving economic growth. Supply management focuses more on the supply side of capital, land, labor, institutions and technology. China's supply-side structural reform has clearly put forward five tasks: destocking, de-productive capacity, deleveraging, cost reduction and compensation. On the basis of carefully combing the development of supply-side theory, the main ideas and practical enlightenment, combined with the connotation and historical role of government investment, this paper focuses on the analysis of the difficulties and deficiencies of the current government investment in China. Linking government investment with supply-side structural reform, it is considered that government investment is a major focus of supply-side reform, and the five major tasks of achieving supply-side reform (destocking, de-productive capacity, deleveraging), Reduce costs and make up for short board) interlocking. Under the new economic environment and the new historical background, the goal of government investment and the criterion to measure its effectiveness are the five major tasks that can be beneficial to the realization of supply-side reform. These five tasks can be divided into two parts: effective supply and ineffective supply, so in general, the direction of government investment is to reduce the ineffective supply and increase the effective supply. The idea is to promote the realization of "destocking", "destocking" and "deleveraging" in reducing ineffective supply, optimize the stock, control the increment, and eliminate the stock in order to increase the effective supply, and "reduce the cost" in increasing the effective supply. "fill short board" as the path, expand the supply capacity of enterprises, improve the ability of government public service.
【学位授予单位】：兰州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45

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