中国财政政策、货币政策的就业效应——基于面板向量自回归模型的研究
发布时间：2018-10-16 09:18
【摘要】：以中国省级面板数据为基础,采用面板向量自回归模型估计了财政政策、货币政策对中国就业与经济增长的影响,结果发现:第一,扩张性财政政策对城镇就业和经济增长都有很强的促进作用;第二,增加货币供给的扩张性货币政策对城镇就业的促进作用有限,然而对经济增长有很强的促进作用;第三,降低利率的货币政策对城镇就业和经济增长的促进作用有限,并且要滞后两年才能显现出来。因此,为了促进就业增长,应当以扩张性的财政政策为主,同时辅之以增加货币供给的扩张性货币政策,以发挥其促进经济增长的作用,从而夯实就业增长的基础。鉴于利率对就业和经济增长的影响具有滞后性,应当保持利率政策的稳定性。
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China, this paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment and economic growth in China by using panel vector autoregressive model. The results are as follows: first, The expansionary fiscal policy has a strong promoting effect on both urban employment and economic growth. Second, the expansionary monetary policy that increases the money supply has a limited effect on urban employment, but it has a strong promoting effect on economic growth. Third, Monetary policies that cut interest rates have a limited impact on urban employment and economic growth, and will take two years to show up. Therefore, in order to promote the employment growth, we should take the expansionary fiscal policy as the main factor, at the same time, supplement it with the expansionary monetary policy of increasing the money supply, so as to play its role of promoting the economic growth and consolidate the foundation of the employment growth. In view of the lagging effect of interest rate on employment and economic growth, the stability of interest rate policy should be maintained.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“财政政策、货币政策的就业效应研究”(13CJY021)
【分类号】：F249.2;F812.0;F822.0
本文编号：2273908
[Abstract]:Based on the provincial panel data of China, this paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy on employment and economic growth in China by using panel vector autoregressive model. The results are as follows: first, The expansionary fiscal policy has a strong promoting effect on both urban employment and economic growth. Second, the expansionary monetary policy that increases the money supply has a limited effect on urban employment, but it has a strong promoting effect on economic growth. Third, Monetary policies that cut interest rates have a limited impact on urban employment and economic growth, and will take two years to show up. Therefore, in order to promote the employment growth, we should take the expansionary fiscal policy as the main factor, at the same time, supplement it with the expansionary monetary policy of increasing the money supply, so as to play its role of promoting the economic growth and consolidate the foundation of the employment growth. In view of the lagging effect of interest rate on employment and economic growth, the stability of interest rate policy should be maintained.
【作者单位】： 首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“财政政策、货币政策的就业效应研究”(13CJY021)
【分类号】：F249.2;F812.0;F822.0
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