我国综合个人所得税改革的福利效应及其动态影响

发布时间：2018-10-20 09:03

【摘要】：通过回顾我国个人所得税制度的发展历程,对"综合与分类相结合"的个人所得税改革目标进行解读,可以发现改革的核心包括税基的综合、纳税单位的综合、税率的调整三个关键因素,改革的本质是在现行分类征收的基础上增加了一层汇算清缴。基于这种理解,利用递归动态CGE模型考察如下三类情景下"综合与分类相结合"的个税改革的福利效应:一是仅对居民收入进行税基综合,二是在对居民收入进行税基综合的同时调整税率,三是在对居民家庭进行税基综合的同时调整税率。结果表明:情景一与情景二都有利于改善收入分配,但也会导致社会整体福利水平的下降;情景三在促进福利均等化的同时也提升了社会整体福利水平。从改革的长期影响看,情景三的福利效应更具有渐近性,如果进一步考虑到税改其他方面的经济影响,则情景三的综合优势相对明显,但也面临政府收支减少的约束。随着税收征管能力的提高,结合市场经济改革取向对政府职能转型的要求,我国个税改革正面临一个难得的窗口期。
[Abstract]:By reviewing the development course of our country's personal income tax system, we can find that the core of the reform includes the synthesis of tax base and the synthesis of tax paying unit. The essence of the reform is to add a layer of collection to the current taxable collection. Based on this understanding, we use the recursive dynamic CGE model to investigate the welfare effects of the personal tax reform under the following three scenarios: first, we only integrate the income of residents with tax base. The other is to adjust the tax rate while synthesizing the tax base of residents' income, and adjusting the tax rate while synthesizing the tax base of the household. The results show that both scenario one and scenario two are beneficial to improve income distribution, but also lead to the decline of social welfare level. Scenario three promotes the equalization of welfare and raises the level of social welfare as a whole. From the long-term effect of reform, the welfare effect of scenario III is more asymptotic. If the economic impact of other aspects of tax reform is further considered, the comprehensive advantage of scenario III is relatively obvious, but it also faces the constraints of the reduction of government revenue and expenditure. With the improvement of the ability of tax collection and management and the demand of the reform of market economy for the transformation of government functions, the reform of personal tax in China is facing a rare window period.
【作者单位】：浙江工商大学金融学院;
【基金】：浙江省哲学社会科学重点研究基地浙江工商大学浙商研究中心项目“企业走出去的国际税收协调及其经济影响研究”(16JDGH124) 教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目“基于税收归宿视角的收入再分配理论与实证研究”(11YJA790036)
【分类号】：F812.42

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