我国财政政策的内需效应研究
发布时间：2018-11-07 11:24
【摘要】：2008年,金融风暴引起的经济危机席卷全球,各国经济增速总体放缓,置身其中的中国经济也难以独善其身,总体形势愈发严峻,出口下降、楼市泡沫、消费乏力、外汇储备困境等问题层出不穷。面对盘根错节的经济局面,众多学者将内需失衡视为当前时期制约中国经济发展的深层根源。 我国的内需失衡表现为内需两大部分消费和投资的比例失衡,且有继续恶化的趋势。现有文献多是单就调整消费或者投资需求提出政策建议,忽略了政策通常会有连锁反应,比如刺激消费的政策很可能影响投资进而加剧内需失衡。因此,本文认为,要解决内需失衡,关键就在于增加国内需求的基础上合理调控消费-投资比例。 宏观经济政策中,财政政策既能通过预算编制将政府部门消费和投资纳入基本可控范围,又能直接影响私人部门消费和投资需求,因此是解决我国内需失衡不可或缺的政策。而通过比较同一项政策在同一时点对消费、投资的动态冲击,进而考量财政政策的内需效应,对于实践指导财政政策解决内需失衡具有重要借鉴意义。 本文首先归纳了财政政策和内需的理论及实践概述,包括财政政策类型、目标、工具、宏观经济效应等相关概念,以及内需失衡相关概念；通过对改革开放以来的数据分析,从纵向和横向整理了我国内需“高投资,低消费”的失衡现状,并从消费、投资两方面分析原因,还分阶段简要回顾改革开放以来我国财政政策对内需的影响。 其次,通过模型对财政政策的内需效应进行实证分析。以财政政策的四种工具——税收、国债、政府性购买支出和转移性支出为解释变量,消费、投资指标为被解释变量,运用VAR模型对1994-2012年的变量数据进行回归分析,探讨它们对消费、投资需求效应的有效性,并进一步通过脉冲响应图分析各工具对消费、投资的动态效应情况,通过同时点比较得出对内需的动态效应方向。 最后,结合计量结论和全文内容,肯定四项工具对内需的短期效应,并提出优化长期效应的改革建议：合理调整税制,调整国债功能定位,加强民生领域财政支出。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the economic crisis caused by the financial turmoil swept the world, and the overall economic growth rate of various countries slowed down. The Chinese economy in which it was placed is also difficult to escape. The overall situation is becoming more and more serious, with exports falling, property bubbles, and weak consumption. The foreign exchange reserve predicament and so on question emerges endlessly. Faced with the interlocking economic situation, many scholars regard the imbalance of domestic demand as the deep source of restricting China's economic development in the current period. The imbalance of domestic demand in China is the imbalance of consumption and investment of two parts of domestic demand, and it has a tendency of worsening. Most of the existing literature is simply to adjust consumption or investment demand policy recommendations, ignoring the policy usually has a chain reaction, such as policies to stimulate consumption likely to affect investment and aggravate the imbalance in domestic demand. Therefore, in order to solve the imbalance of domestic demand, the key lies in the rational control of consumption-investment ratio on the basis of increasing domestic demand. In macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy can not only bring government consumption and investment into the basic controllable range through budgeting, but also directly affect private sector consumption and investment demand, so it is an indispensable policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand in China. By comparing the dynamic impact of the same policy on consumption and investment at the same time, and then considering the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy, it is of great significance to guide fiscal policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand. This paper first summarizes the theory and practice of fiscal policy and domestic demand, including the types of fiscal policy, objectives, tools, macroeconomic effects and other related concepts, as well as domestic demand imbalance related concepts; Through the analysis of the data since the reform and opening up, the unbalanced situation of "high investment and low consumption" of domestic demand in China is sorted out vertically and horizontally, and the reasons are analyzed from the two aspects of consumption and investment. It also briefly reviews the impact of China's fiscal policy on domestic demand since the reform and opening up. Secondly, the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy is empirically analyzed through the model. Taking four kinds of instruments of fiscal policy tax, national debt, government purchase expenditure and transfer expenditure as explanatory variables, consumption and investment index as explanatory variables, the VAR model is used to analyze the variable data from 1994 to 2012. This paper discusses the effectiveness of their effects on consumption and investment demand, and further analyzes the dynamic effects of various instruments on consumption and investment by using impulse response graph, and obtains the dynamic effect direction of domestic demand by comparing them at the same time. Finally, combined with the quantitative conclusions and the full text, this paper affirms the short-term effect of the four tools on domestic demand, and puts forward some reform suggestions for optimizing the long-term effect: reasonable adjustment of tax system, adjustment of the function orientation of national debt, and strengthening of financial expenditure in the field of people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.0
本文编号：2316206
[Abstract]:In 2008, the economic crisis caused by the financial turmoil swept the world, and the overall economic growth rate of various countries slowed down. The Chinese economy in which it was placed is also difficult to escape. The overall situation is becoming more and more serious, with exports falling, property bubbles, and weak consumption. The foreign exchange reserve predicament and so on question emerges endlessly. Faced with the interlocking economic situation, many scholars regard the imbalance of domestic demand as the deep source of restricting China's economic development in the current period. The imbalance of domestic demand in China is the imbalance of consumption and investment of two parts of domestic demand, and it has a tendency of worsening. Most of the existing literature is simply to adjust consumption or investment demand policy recommendations, ignoring the policy usually has a chain reaction, such as policies to stimulate consumption likely to affect investment and aggravate the imbalance in domestic demand. Therefore, in order to solve the imbalance of domestic demand, the key lies in the rational control of consumption-investment ratio on the basis of increasing domestic demand. In macroeconomic policy, fiscal policy can not only bring government consumption and investment into the basic controllable range through budgeting, but also directly affect private sector consumption and investment demand, so it is an indispensable policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand in China. By comparing the dynamic impact of the same policy on consumption and investment at the same time, and then considering the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy, it is of great significance to guide fiscal policy to solve the imbalance of domestic demand. This paper first summarizes the theory and practice of fiscal policy and domestic demand, including the types of fiscal policy, objectives, tools, macroeconomic effects and other related concepts, as well as domestic demand imbalance related concepts; Through the analysis of the data since the reform and opening up, the unbalanced situation of "high investment and low consumption" of domestic demand in China is sorted out vertically and horizontally, and the reasons are analyzed from the two aspects of consumption and investment. It also briefly reviews the impact of China's fiscal policy on domestic demand since the reform and opening up. Secondly, the domestic demand effect of fiscal policy is empirically analyzed through the model. Taking four kinds of instruments of fiscal policy tax, national debt, government purchase expenditure and transfer expenditure as explanatory variables, consumption and investment index as explanatory variables, the VAR model is used to analyze the variable data from 1994 to 2012. This paper discusses the effectiveness of their effects on consumption and investment demand, and further analyzes the dynamic effects of various instruments on consumption and investment by using impulse response graph, and obtains the dynamic effect direction of domestic demand by comparing them at the same time. Finally, combined with the quantitative conclusions and the full text, this paper affirms the short-term effect of the four tools on domestic demand, and puts forward some reform suggestions for optimizing the long-term effect: reasonable adjustment of tax system, adjustment of the function orientation of national debt, and strengthening of financial expenditure in the field of people's livelihood.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.0
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，本文编号：2316206
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