增加政府转移支付是否会有助于改善生育率——基于OECD国家的门槛回归模型检验
发布时间：2018-11-22 07:04
【摘要】：本研究的主要目的是通过门槛回归模型来检验增加政府转移支付是否有助于改善生育率,并且评估不同解释变量对生育率的影响及长期经济发展的可行性。本研究首先梳理影响生育率变量的相关文献及实证研究,再通过Hansen(1996,2000)的门槛回归模型,考虑不同解释变量(人均GDP增长率、转移支付、税式支出、失业率、死亡率、教育支出及移入人口)分别对生育率的相关显著性影响,对OECD国家的数据进行实证检验。实证结果显示,实际人均GDP增长率、失业率和死亡率均与生育率呈现显著负相关关系,而提高税式支出则能增加生育率水平;教育支出对于生育率的影响存在不确定性,实证结果显示,在小于等于门槛值时和生育率为负相关,但是大于门槛值时则为正相关;转移支付对生育率的影响,在小于等于门槛值时为正相关,但是大于门槛值时为负相关。从长期考虑,应提高转移支付,增加教育补贴和减税措施,改善日益下降的生育率水平。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this study is to test whether increasing government transfer payment can improve fertility rate and to evaluate the effect of different explanatory variables on fertility rate and the feasibility of long-term economic development through threshold regression model. This study firstly combs the relevant literature and empirical research on the influence of fertility variables, then through the threshold regression model of Hansen (1996 / 2000), considering the different explanatory variables (per capita GDP growth rate, transfer payment, tax expenditure, unemployment rate, mortality rate, etc. The significant effects of education expenditure and imported population on the fertility rate were analyzed. The data of OECD countries were tested. The empirical results show that the real per capita GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and mortality are negatively correlated with the fertility rate, while the increase of tax expenditure can increase the fertility level. The effect of education expenditure on fertility is uncertain. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between education expenditure and fertility when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but a positive correlation when it is larger than the threshold. The effect of transfer payment on fertility is positively correlated when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but it is negatively correlated when it is larger than the threshold. In the long run, transfer payments should be increased, education subsidies and tax cuts should be increased, and declining fertility levels should be improved.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心;
【分类号】：C924.1;F811.4
，
本文编号：2348435
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this study is to test whether increasing government transfer payment can improve fertility rate and to evaluate the effect of different explanatory variables on fertility rate and the feasibility of long-term economic development through threshold regression model. This study firstly combs the relevant literature and empirical research on the influence of fertility variables, then through the threshold regression model of Hansen (1996 / 2000), considering the different explanatory variables (per capita GDP growth rate, transfer payment, tax expenditure, unemployment rate, mortality rate, etc. The significant effects of education expenditure and imported population on the fertility rate were analyzed. The data of OECD countries were tested. The empirical results show that the real per capita GDP growth rate, unemployment rate and mortality are negatively correlated with the fertility rate, while the increase of tax expenditure can increase the fertility level. The effect of education expenditure on fertility is uncertain. The empirical results show that there is a negative correlation between education expenditure and fertility when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but a positive correlation when it is larger than the threshold. The effect of transfer payment on fertility is positively correlated when it is less than or equal to the threshold, but it is negatively correlated when it is larger than the threshold. In the long run, transfer payments should be increased, education subsidies and tax cuts should be increased, and declining fertility levels should be improved.
【作者单位】： 南开大学经济学院中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心;
【分类号】：C924.1;F811.4
，
本文编号：2348435
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