日本国债偿还能力分析

发布时间：2019-01-07 11:38

【摘要】：自上世纪90年代经济泡沫破灭以来，为应对经济衰退以及由人口老龄化导致社会保障支出增加等问题，日本政府开始大规模发行国债。数据显示，截至2013年6月，日本国债负担率（国债累计余额占国内生产总值的比率）高达247%，成为国债负担率最高的国家。2011年开始，世界三大评级机构先后降低日本主权信用评级。意外的是，评级的下降并未使投资者对其失去信心，日本国债的销售并未受到实质性的影响。国债是一国政府运用其信用所筹措的债务资金，到期时政府必须按时足额偿付本息，而能否按时足额偿还这就涉及到国债偿还能力。影响一国国债偿还能力的因素有很多，主要包括该国经济总体实力，政府国债管理能力，金融市场的运行机制完善程度以及该国经济组织持有闲置资金的多少。本文主要针对这几方面对日本国债偿还能力展开分析。首先从经济层面来讲，经济增长的不确定性将威胁日本国债偿还能力。安倍政权上台后为尽快重振经济提出了“安倍经济学”，即所谓的“三支利箭”——包括激进的金融政策、灵活的财政政策、激活民间投资为核心的经济增长战略（日本再兴战略）。在2013年间，日本国内各项经济指标缓慢增长，居民收入有所提升，短期内安倍经济学初见成效。但从长期来看，安倍经济学的制约因素还有很多，加上日本的特殊经济情况，长期效果具有很大不确定性，不宜过分乐观。而对持有国债的主要经济组织（银行、企业和家庭）来讲，他们持有大量闲置资金，完全具备消化国债的可行性和必然性，分析得出他们的存在将提高日本的国债偿还能力。在政府作为这方面，日本国债的发行和运作有法可依，，衍生产品灵活机动、流通市场井然有序。这一方面吸引了广大投资者，另一方面有效制度的建立、健全的金融体系也坚定了购买者的信心。最后，日本是民主国家，其行政决策咨询体系经历几十年的发展已十分成熟，从历史也好现今也好，日本政府的决策能力及执行公信度还是能够在一定程度上得到民众的认可。本文从日本国债的现状着手，在阐述其国债风险的基础上，从以上经济层面、政府能力两个角度展开分析，最终得出结论：日本国债存在偿还风险，但短期内不存在严重的偿还能力不足问题。日本政府应当足够重视这一问题，在经济增长战略目标的基础上适当控制和减少国债规模，不断提高国债的运作效率。日本国债情况对我国有诸多启示，文中针对性的提出三项建议：第一，控制国债规模，提高我国国债管理水平；第二，建立健全我国国债市场；第三，加强经济建设，从根本上提高我国国债偿还能力。
[Abstract]:Since the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s, the government has begun to issue large amounts of government bonds in response to the recession and rising social security spending caused by an ageing population. Data show that as of June 2013, the JGBs' burden ratio (the cumulative balance of JGBs as a percentage of gross domestic product) reached 247 knuckles, making it the country with the highest debt burden. The world's three major rating agencies have lowered Japan's sovereign credit rating. Unexpectedly, the downgrade did not discredit investors, and the sale of Japanese government bonds was not materially affected. The national debt is the debt fund raised by a government using its credit. When it is due, the government must pay the principal and interest in full and on time, and whether the government can repay the debt in full and on time is related to the ability of the national debt to repay. There are many factors that affect the repayment ability of a country's national debt, including the overall strength of the national economy, the management ability of government bonds, the perfection of the operating mechanism of the financial market and the amount of idle funds held by the country's economic organizations. This article mainly aims at these several aspects carries on the analysis to the Japanese national debt repayment ability. First, on an economic level, the uncertainty of economic growth will threaten the ability of Japanese government bonds to repay. After the Abe regime came to power, it put forward "Abenomics" in order to revive the economy as soon as possible, that is, the so-called "three arrows of interest"-including radical financial policies and flexible fiscal policies. Activation of private investment as the core of the economic growth strategy (Japan rejuvenation strategy). In 2013, Japan's domestic economic indicators grew slowly, residents' incomes rose, and Abenomics began to bear fruit in the short term. But in the long run, there are still many constraints on Abenomics, plus Japan's special economic situation, the long-term effect is very uncertain, should not be overly optimistic. For the main economic organizations (banks, enterprises and households) that hold treasury bonds, they hold a large amount of idle funds and have the feasibility and inevitability of digesting the national debt. The analysis shows that their existence will improve the repayment ability of Japan's national debt. In this respect, the issuance and operation of JGBs have laws, derivatives are flexible and the circulation market is orderly. On the one hand, this attracted investors, on the other hand, the establishment of effective institutions, a sound financial system also strengthened the confidence of buyers. Finally, Japan is a democratic country, its administrative decision-making consultation system has been very mature through decades of development, from the history or now, the Japanese government's decision-making ability and the public's credibility can be recognized to a certain extent. This paper starts from the present situation of Japanese national debt, on the basis of expounding the risk of its national debt, from the above economic level, the government's ability to carry out the analysis, and finally comes to the conclusion: the Japanese national debt has the risk of repayment. But in the short term, there is no serious problem of insufficient repayment capacity. The Japanese government should pay enough attention to this problem, control and reduce the scale of national debt on the basis of the strategic goal of economic growth, and continuously improve the operational efficiency of national debt. This paper puts forward three suggestions: first, to control the scale of national debt and improve the management level of national debt; second, to establish and improve the national debt market; Third, strengthen economic construction, fundamentally improve our national debt repayment capacity.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F813.13;F812.5

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