“营改增”的减税效应——基于DSGE模型的分析

发布时间：2019-01-26 15:01

【摘要】：在新凯恩斯的分析框架下,根据中国经济的实际发展情况,构建了包括家庭、中间品厂商、最终品厂商、中央银行以及财政部门在内的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,评估了"营改增"的减税效应。对"营改增"减税效应的评估从两个维度进行:首先,把流转税领域税负减轻作为一个外生冲击,分析了社会总产出、消费水平、政府支出、劳动水平、工资水平、投资和资本存量等宏观经济变量的变动趋势;其次,构建了"营改增"前后两个不同的政策环境,并模拟了投资下降的经济下行冲击,对比分析了减税前后总产出对外生冲击的反应程度。研究发现:"营改增"虽然降低了政府部门的税收收入,但其减税效应能促进产出和消费的增加,激发整个经济的增长潜力;目前的改革力度在应对经济下行压力时尚没有发挥出预期的效果。
[Abstract]:Under the framework of New Keynes' analysis and according to the actual development of China's economy, this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, which includes households, intermediate manufacturers, final goods manufacturers, central banks and financial departments. The tax reduction effect of "camp reform increase" is evaluated. The evaluation of tax reduction effect of "business reform" is carried out from two dimensions: first, the tax burden reduction in the field of turnover tax is regarded as an exogenous shock, and the total social output, consumption level, government expenditure, labor level and wage level are analyzed. Trends in macroeconomic variables such as investment and capital stock; Secondly, it constructs two different policy environments before and after the "camp reform and increase", and simulates the economic downward impact of investment decline, and analyzes the reaction degree of the external impact of total output before and after the tax reduction. It is found that although the tax revenue of government departments is reduced, the tax reduction effect can promote the increase of output and consumption, and stimulate the growth potential of the whole economy. The current reform efforts in response to economic downward pressure fashion did not play the expected effect.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学财政税务学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZZ010)
【分类号】：F812.42

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