经济新常态下政府财政支出的就业效应——基于中国省级面板数据的系统GMM分析

发布时间：2019-01-27 06:42

【摘要】：新常态下,经济增长对就业的拉动作用趋弱,作为政府宏观调控的重要工具,财政支出对就业具有重要影响。笔者采用2007—2013年我国30个省份的面板数据,考察了财政支出规模和结构对就业的影响,研究发现:我国财政支出对就业的影响存在滞后效应,滞后一期财政支出规模对就业具有正向影响。不同类型财政支出的就业效应差别较大,其中,经济建设支出对就业的影响不显著,技术支出只在当期内对就业有正向影响,教育和社会保障支出对就业的长期正向影响显著。政府可以通过调整财政支出规模和结构来实现"稳就业、调结构"的目标,加强对第三产业的支持,提高教育、技术和社会保障方面的财政支出比重,改善教育支出结构、技术创新激励机制和社会保障缴费体制。
[Abstract]:Under the new normal condition, the economic growth has a weaker effect on employment. As an important tool of government macro-control, fiscal expenditure has an important influence on employment. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2013, the author examines the impact of fiscal expenditure scale and structure on employment, and finds that the impact of fiscal expenditure on employment has a lag effect. The scale of lagging fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on employment. The employment effects of different types of fiscal expenditure are quite different, among which, the economic construction expenditure has no significant effect on employment, the technology expenditure only has a positive impact on employment in the current period, and the long-term positive impact of education and social security expenditure on employment is significant. By adjusting the scale and structure of fiscal expenditure, the government can achieve the goal of "stabilizing employment and adjusting structure," strengthen support for the tertiary industry, increase the proportion of financial expenditure on education, technology, and social security, and improve the structure of expenditure on education. Technological innovation incentive mechanism and social security payment system.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“中国产业政策与竞争政策的有效性及协调机制研究”(项目编号:71473151)
【分类号】：F812.45

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