财政约束、不确定性与中国贸易收支失衡

发布时间：2019-02-12 07:27

【摘要】：通过构建异质性随机前沿模型,在考虑财政约束的条件下,对中国贸易收支的效率及其影响因素进行实证测度。研究结果显示:总体上看,财政约束是造成中国贸易收支失衡和效率扭曲的重要因素。从分区域角度看,东部地区面临的财政约束程度要明显低于中西部地区;财政支出分权和财政收入分权会加剧财政约束的不确定性,但前者无法缓解财政约束,而后者能够有效平抑财政约束;财政支出的扩张不但能缓解财政约束,还能降低财政约束的不确定性。财政收入的提高对财政约束本身缺乏显著性影响,但会加剧财政约束的不确定性;财政分权体制的强化能够有效缓和经济欠发达地区的财政约束,财政能力的提高和财政赤字的调控则有助于平滑经济发达地区的财政约束。
[Abstract]:By constructing heterogeneity stochastic frontier model, this paper empirically measures the efficiency of China's trade balance and its influencing factors under the condition of considering financial constraints. The results show that fiscal constraint is an important factor causing imbalance and efficiency distortion of China's trade balance. From a subregional point of view, the degree of financial constraints in the eastern region is obviously lower than that in the central and western regions; Fiscal expenditure decentralization and fiscal revenue decentralization will increase the uncertainty of financial constraints, but the former can not alleviate the financial constraints, while the latter can effectively calm the financial constraints; The expansion of fiscal expenditure can not only ease the financial constraints, but also reduce the uncertainty of financial constraints. The increase of fiscal revenue has no significant effect on the financial constraint itself, but it will aggravate the uncertainty of financial constraint. The strengthening of fiscal decentralization system can effectively ease the financial constraints in underdeveloped areas, and the improvement of fiscal capacity and the regulation of fiscal deficit can help smooth the fiscal constraints in economically developed areas.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：广东省自然科学基金项目“地方财政行为视角下中国贸易收支的效率测度及其动态调整机制研究”(2016A030310431) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“财政约束、不确定性与中国贸易收支失衡”(2015BS04)
【分类号】：F752.6;F812

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