地方财政行为与中国贸易收支:约束还是激励

发布时间：2019-02-25 13:37

【摘要】：本文通过构建双边随机前沿模型,在考虑财政约束和财政激励的情况下,实证测度了地方财政行为对贸易收支的驱动性影响。研究结果表明:财政激励效应要明显强于财政约束效应,因此地方财政行为会导致实际贸易收支的整体偏高,这也是中国贸易收支长期处于顺差状态的重要症结;平均而言,财政激励行为将使贸易收支高出基准水平76.69%,而财政约束行为则能使实际贸易收支降低69.54%。当前财政约束机制的调控效果正逐步显现,将推动中国贸易收支向"再平衡"状态趋近;财政激励行为和财政约束行为对贸易收支的影响具有显著的区域异质性。东部地区的财政激励效应最强,净指数也最高,而中部地区的净指数最低,其贸易收支趋于基准水平。同时,各地区不同分位点上贸易收支的变动幅度也不尽相同。
[Abstract]:By constructing a bilateral stochastic frontier model and considering fiscal constraints and incentives, this paper empirically measures the driving effect of local fiscal behavior on trade revenue and expenditure. The results show that the fiscal incentive effect is obviously stronger than the fiscal constraint effect, so the local fiscal behavior will lead to the overall higher actual trade revenue and expenditure, which is also an important sticking point of China's trade balance in surplus for a long time. On average, the fiscal incentive behavior will make the trade balance higher than the benchmark level 76.69, while the fiscal restraint behavior can reduce the actual trade balance 69.54. At present, the regulatory effect of fiscal restraint mechanism is gradually appearing, which will promote China's trade revenue and expenditure to "rebalance" state, and the influence of fiscal incentive behavior and fiscal restraint behavior on trade revenue and expenditure has significant regional heterogeneity. The eastern region has the strongest fiscal incentive effect and the highest net index, while the central region has the lowest net index, and its trade balance tends to the benchmark level. At the same time, the range of trade balance changes in different localities is not always the same.
【作者单位】：华南理工大学经济与贸易学院;广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院;
【基金】：中国博士后科学基金面上项目“区域异质性、地方财政行为与中国贸易收支失衡”(2015M572299) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助项目“财政约束、不确定性与中国贸易收支失衡”(2015BS04)的资助
【分类号】：F812;F752

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