瓦格纳法则视角下广东省财政支出规模增长的实证研究
发布时间：2019-03-28 18:01
【摘要】：关于政府规模问题的探讨一直是公共经济学界热点问题之一。我国政府虽然先后进行了多次精简机构改革,但政府财政支出规模并没有停止扩张的趋势。广东省作为全国经济大省之一,其政府财政支出绝对规模却一直居全国首位,引起关于广东省政府规模扩张合理性的讨论。因此,有必要基于当前经济发展背景研究影响财政支出规模扩张的因素,以探讨广东省财政支出规模扩张是否存在合理性。本文以政府规模扩张理论研究成果之一的瓦格纳法则为出发点,结合当前我国工业化和城镇化不断推进的大背景,分析了广东省财政支出规模发展情况,实证研究了广东省工业化和城镇化与政府财政支出规模之间的关系,基于此分析政府规模扩张的是否具有合理性,并提出优化政府规模的政策建议。本文前半部分主要采用比较分析和理论分析的方法。首先对瓦格纳法则的具体内容进行了详细的解释和说明,并梳理了瓦格纳法则在中国适用性研究的相关文献;然后回顾了广东省1978年至2015年期间财政支出分阶段增长情况,对广东省人均财政支出、财政支出绝对规模发展情况以及结构特征进行横向和纵向的比较分析,以全面呈现广东省财政支出规模增长情况;最后阐释了瓦格纳法则视角下财政支出规模扩张的原因,主要归结为工业化导致社会市场关系复杂化、城镇化引致公共安全卫生等公共产品数量和质量的激增,致使政府需承担更多的供给和管理职责,助推财政支出规模的扩张。文章后半部分采用了实证分析方法,首先通过建立向量自回归模型实证分析了广东省工业化和城镇化对财政支出规模的影响;然后将实证结果应用于政府规模扩张的合理性分析,并通过沿海五省及两直辖市和广东省的财政支出相关指标的比较,进一步对广东省财政支出规模增长合理性进行分析,最后针对广东省在工业化和城镇化进程中如何优化政府规模提出了政策建议。通过本文的理论和实证分析,得出广东省工业化和城镇化对政府财政支出规模起正向推动作用,说明政府在工业化和城镇化进程中履行的职能助推政府财政支出规模的扩大,财政支出规模扩张存在其必要性和合理性,但政府应不断提高自身执政能力,合理控制政府规模。
[Abstract]:The discussion on the scale of government has always been one of the hot issues in the field of public economics. Although our country government has carried on many times to streamline the organization reform, but the government fiscal expenditure scale has not stopped the trend of expansion. As one of the major economic provinces in China, Guangdong Province has always occupied the first place in the absolute scale of its government expenditure, which has led to a discussion on the rationality of the scale expansion of the Guangdong provincial government. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors affecting the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure based on the current economic development background, in order to explore the rationality of the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province. Taking Wagner method, one of the theoretical achievements of government scale expansion, as the starting point, this paper analyzes the development of the scale of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province in the light of the current background of industrialization and urbanization in China. This paper empirically studies the relationship between the industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province and the scale of government expenditure. Based on this analysis, the rationality of the expansion of government scale is analyzed, and the policy suggestions for optimizing the scale of government are put forward. The first half of this paper mainly uses the methods of comparative analysis and theoretical analysis. First of all, the specific content of Wagner's rule is explained and explained in detail, and the relevant literature about the applicability of Wagner's rule in China is combed. Then it reviews the phased growth of Guangdong's fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2015, and makes a horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of the per capita fiscal expenditure, the development of the absolute scale of fiscal expenditure and the structural characteristics of Guangdong Province, In order to show the scale of fiscal expenditure growth in Guangdong Province in an all-round way; Finally, it explains the reasons for the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure from the perspective of Wagner's law, which is mainly attributed to the complexity of social market relations caused by industrialization and the surge in the quantity and quality of public goods such as public safety and health caused by urbanization. As a result, the government needs to assume more supply and management responsibilities to boost the expansion of the scale of fiscal expenditure. In the second half of the paper, the empirical analysis method is adopted. Firstly, the influence of industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province on the scale of fiscal expenditure is analyzed through the establishment of vector autoregressive model. Then the empirical results are applied to the rationality analysis of government scale expansion, and through the comparison of five coastal provinces, two municipalities directly under the Central Government and Guangdong Province, the rationality of the scale growth of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province is further analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to optimize the scale of government in the process of industrialization and urbanization in Guangdong Province. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis of this paper, it is concluded that the industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province play a positive role in promoting the scale of government fiscal expenditure, indicating that the functions performed by the government in the process of industrialization and urbanization contribute to the expansion of the scale of government fiscal expenditure. It is necessary and reasonable to expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, but the government should constantly improve its governing ability and control the scale of government reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45
本文编号：2449099
[Abstract]:The discussion on the scale of government has always been one of the hot issues in the field of public economics. Although our country government has carried on many times to streamline the organization reform, but the government fiscal expenditure scale has not stopped the trend of expansion. As one of the major economic provinces in China, Guangdong Province has always occupied the first place in the absolute scale of its government expenditure, which has led to a discussion on the rationality of the scale expansion of the Guangdong provincial government. Therefore, it is necessary to study the factors affecting the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure based on the current economic development background, in order to explore the rationality of the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province. Taking Wagner method, one of the theoretical achievements of government scale expansion, as the starting point, this paper analyzes the development of the scale of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province in the light of the current background of industrialization and urbanization in China. This paper empirically studies the relationship between the industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province and the scale of government expenditure. Based on this analysis, the rationality of the expansion of government scale is analyzed, and the policy suggestions for optimizing the scale of government are put forward. The first half of this paper mainly uses the methods of comparative analysis and theoretical analysis. First of all, the specific content of Wagner's rule is explained and explained in detail, and the relevant literature about the applicability of Wagner's rule in China is combed. Then it reviews the phased growth of Guangdong's fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2015, and makes a horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of the per capita fiscal expenditure, the development of the absolute scale of fiscal expenditure and the structural characteristics of Guangdong Province, In order to show the scale of fiscal expenditure growth in Guangdong Province in an all-round way; Finally, it explains the reasons for the scale expansion of fiscal expenditure from the perspective of Wagner's law, which is mainly attributed to the complexity of social market relations caused by industrialization and the surge in the quantity and quality of public goods such as public safety and health caused by urbanization. As a result, the government needs to assume more supply and management responsibilities to boost the expansion of the scale of fiscal expenditure. In the second half of the paper, the empirical analysis method is adopted. Firstly, the influence of industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province on the scale of fiscal expenditure is analyzed through the establishment of vector autoregressive model. Then the empirical results are applied to the rationality analysis of government scale expansion, and through the comparison of five coastal provinces, two municipalities directly under the Central Government and Guangdong Province, the rationality of the scale growth of fiscal expenditure in Guangdong Province is further analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to optimize the scale of government in the process of industrialization and urbanization in Guangdong Province. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis of this paper, it is concluded that the industrialization and urbanization of Guangdong Province play a positive role in promoting the scale of government fiscal expenditure, indicating that the functions performed by the government in the process of industrialization and urbanization contribute to the expansion of the scale of government fiscal expenditure. It is necessary and reasonable to expand the scale of fiscal expenditure, but the government should constantly improve its governing ability and control the scale of government reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.45
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