中国国防支出需求的影响因素分析:1978—2010

发布时间：2019-04-09 06:41

【摘要】：以1978—2010年的国防支出和GDP实际值为样本数据,利用新古典国防支出需求模型和MS-AR模型,通过结构性分析发现:国防发展战略是影响中国国防支出需求结构性突变的主要因素。国防发展战略和上期国防支出是影响国防支出需求变化的重要解释变量。国防支出受国防发展战略的影响大致经历了"负增长期""低增长期""补偿性增长期"三个不同阶段。在不同阶段,上期国防支出和当期GDP对国防支出的影响发生了显著变化:1989年后当期GDP和当期国防支出的关系由负向转为正向,1997年后上期国防支出对当期国防支出的贡献增加了3.56倍。实证结果证明:近年来国防支出的较快增长是对过去历史欠账的补偿性增长,是国防建设和经济建设协调发展的必然结果。
[Abstract]:Taking defense expenditure and GDP real value from 1978-2010 as sample data, the neoclassical defense expenditure demand model and MS-AR model are used. Through the structural analysis, it is found that the defense development strategy is the main factor that affects the structural abrupt change of China's defense expenditure demand. Defense development strategy and defense expenditure in last period are important explanatory variables that influence the change of defense expenditure demand. Under the influence of national defense development strategy, national defense expenditure has experienced three different stages: negative growth period, low growth period, compensatory growth period. At different stages, the influence of defense expenditure and current GDP on defense expenditure has changed significantly: after 1989, the relationship between current GDP and current defense expenditure has changed from negative to positive. The contribution of defence spending to the current period increased 3.56-fold after 1997. The empirical results show that the rapid growth of national defense expenditure in recent years is the compensatory growth of past history debt and the inevitable result of the coordinated development of national defense construction and economic construction.
【作者单位】：中国人民解放军军事经济学院基础部;中国人民解放军军事经济学院国防经济系;
【基金】：国家社科基金资助项目“国防支出结构优化与评价研究”(14BJY154) 全军军事经济研究中心基金资助项目“运用MS-VAR模型从非线性角度研究国防费投入和国民经济建设之间的关联性”(QJJSJJYJZX2012KTLX-056)
【分类号】：E25;F812.45

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