财政赤字的国内需求效应分析
发布时间：2019-06-19 04:24
【摘要】：本文从我国在不同的经济发展形势下政府所采取的财政政策措施入手,发现在调控宏观经济、稳定我国经济发展的实践过程中,除个别年份国家财政有少量结余外,其余各年财政赤字基本呈现一种常态化的经济现象,且赤字规模总体呈现增长之势。与赤字规模总体增长相对应的是我国经济实现了稳步健康发展,国内需求逐年上升,消费需求和投资需求成为推动GDP增长的重要组成部分,表现为消费率和投资率始终维持在较高的水平。但从整个发展历程来看,虽然消费和投资都处在一个动态增长的过程中,其消费率却大致呈现出一个向下的变动趋势,相反,其投资率却运行在上升通道中。消费需求和投资需求的不同步发展为我们找到了国内总需求结构失衡的原因；同时,也说明,我国所实行的财政政策对刺激消费需求和投资需求是存在差异的,这种差异除了来自赤字支出的财政政策所执行的侧重不同,更多的可能还是由于财政政策对消费需求和投资需求的影响效应存在差异所导致的。 从理论效应的角度分析,财政赤字在其形成过程中具有明显的乘数效应、挤入/挤出效应和预期效应。通过促进政府本身的消费和投资需求、引导利率间接作用经济、引致居民消费和私人投资,实现对国内需求的促进作用。同时,政策作用力度的失衡容易引发国内需求的结构性矛盾,赤字规模的扩大一方面可能诱发通货膨胀,另一方面会降低市场对未来的预期,这些都会对国内总需求产生抑制作用。为了说明赤字的存在对消费需求和投资需求的实际影响效应,通过建立VAR模型进行实证分析,并利用Granger检验了赤字率与通胀率之间的因果关系。 从实证研究结论来看,我国财政赤字的存在虽然短期内可以成为推动社会经济发展的主要手段,并且不会引起通货膨胀的上涨,更不会引发市场利率水平的提升。但是从长期来看,由于其反经济周期的形成特性,加上其本身就是财政收不抵支的负面结果,使得它容易诱发通货膨胀的较大波动,并且在长期,赤字对社会消费需求的作用效果并不明显,更多的是对投资需求产生促进作用,导致消费需求和投资需求的不平衡发展,引发我国国内需求的结构性扭曲问题。所以在充分吸收、借鉴国外发达国家和地区实践经验的基础上,提出了在短期要保持适度可控的财政赤字,而在长期则要坚持平衡财政收支,降低财政风险,以此平衡国内市场需求,促进经济可持续发展的财政赤字发展趋势。
[Abstract]:Starting with the fiscal policy measures taken by the government under different economic development situations, this paper finds that in the process of regulating and controlling the macro economy and stabilizing the economic development of our country, except for a small amount of national fiscal balance in a few years, the fiscal deficit in other years basically presents a normal economic phenomenon, and the scale of the deficit generally shows an increasing trend. Corresponding to the overall growth of deficit scale, China's economy has achieved steady and healthy development, domestic demand has increased year by year, consumer demand and investment demand have become an important part of promoting GDP growth, showing that the consumption rate and investment rate have always been maintained at a high level. However, from the point of view of the whole development process, although consumption and investment are in the process of dynamic growth, the consumption rate shows a downward trend, on the contrary, the investment rate is running in the upward channel. The non-synchronous development of consumer demand and investment demand has found the reason for the imbalance of domestic aggregate demand structure. At the same time, it also shows that there are differences in the fiscal policy to stimulate consumer demand and investment demand. in addition to the different emphasis on the implementation of fiscal policy from deficit expenditure, it is more likely to be caused by the differences in the impact of fiscal policy on consumer demand and investment demand. From the point of view of theoretical effect, the fiscal deficit has obvious multiplier effect, extrusion effect and expected effect in the process of its formation. By promoting the consumption and investment demand of the government itself, guiding the interest rate to indirectly act on the economy, leading to the consumption and private investment of residents, and realizing the promoting effect of domestic demand. At the same time, the imbalance of policy role can easily lead to the structural contradiction of domestic demand. on the one hand, the expansion of deficit scale may induce inflation, on the other hand, it will reduce the market expectations for the future, which will inhibit domestic aggregate demand. In order to explain the actual effect of deficit on consumer demand and investment demand, the empirical analysis is carried out by establishing VAR model, and the causality between deficit rate and inflation rate is tested by Granger. From the empirical conclusion, although the existence of fiscal deficit in China can become the main means to promote social and economic development in the short term, and will not lead to the rise of inflation, let alone the rise of market interest rates. However, in the long run, because of the formation characteristics of its anti-economic cycle, coupled with its own negative result of fiscal incapacity, it is easy to induce great fluctuations in inflation, and in the long run, the effect of deficit on social consumer demand is not obvious, more on the promotion of investment demand, resulting in the unbalanced development of consumer demand and investment demand. It leads to the structural distortion of domestic demand in China. Therefore, on the basis of fully absorbing and drawing lessons from the practical experience of foreign developed countries and regions, this paper puts forward the development trend of fiscal deficit, which should maintain moderately controllable fiscal deficit in the short term, and persist in balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure and reducing fiscal risk in the long run, so as to balance the domestic market demand and promote the sustainable development of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F812.4
本文编号：2502087
[Abstract]:Starting with the fiscal policy measures taken by the government under different economic development situations, this paper finds that in the process of regulating and controlling the macro economy and stabilizing the economic development of our country, except for a small amount of national fiscal balance in a few years, the fiscal deficit in other years basically presents a normal economic phenomenon, and the scale of the deficit generally shows an increasing trend. Corresponding to the overall growth of deficit scale, China's economy has achieved steady and healthy development, domestic demand has increased year by year, consumer demand and investment demand have become an important part of promoting GDP growth, showing that the consumption rate and investment rate have always been maintained at a high level. However, from the point of view of the whole development process, although consumption and investment are in the process of dynamic growth, the consumption rate shows a downward trend, on the contrary, the investment rate is running in the upward channel. The non-synchronous development of consumer demand and investment demand has found the reason for the imbalance of domestic aggregate demand structure. At the same time, it also shows that there are differences in the fiscal policy to stimulate consumer demand and investment demand. in addition to the different emphasis on the implementation of fiscal policy from deficit expenditure, it is more likely to be caused by the differences in the impact of fiscal policy on consumer demand and investment demand. From the point of view of theoretical effect, the fiscal deficit has obvious multiplier effect, extrusion effect and expected effect in the process of its formation. By promoting the consumption and investment demand of the government itself, guiding the interest rate to indirectly act on the economy, leading to the consumption and private investment of residents, and realizing the promoting effect of domestic demand. At the same time, the imbalance of policy role can easily lead to the structural contradiction of domestic demand. on the one hand, the expansion of deficit scale may induce inflation, on the other hand, it will reduce the market expectations for the future, which will inhibit domestic aggregate demand. In order to explain the actual effect of deficit on consumer demand and investment demand, the empirical analysis is carried out by establishing VAR model, and the causality between deficit rate and inflation rate is tested by Granger. From the empirical conclusion, although the existence of fiscal deficit in China can become the main means to promote social and economic development in the short term, and will not lead to the rise of inflation, let alone the rise of market interest rates. However, in the long run, because of the formation characteristics of its anti-economic cycle, coupled with its own negative result of fiscal incapacity, it is easy to induce great fluctuations in inflation, and in the long run, the effect of deficit on social consumer demand is not obvious, more on the promotion of investment demand, resulting in the unbalanced development of consumer demand and investment demand. It leads to the structural distortion of domestic demand in China. Therefore, on the basis of fully absorbing and drawing lessons from the practical experience of foreign developed countries and regions, this paper puts forward the development trend of fiscal deficit, which should maintain moderately controllable fiscal deficit in the short term, and persist in balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure and reducing fiscal risk in the long run, so as to balance the domestic market demand and promote the sustainable development of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F224;F812.4
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，本文编号：2502087
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