灾难冲击与我国最优财政货币政策选择
发布时间：2019-07-17 20:53
【摘要】：本文通过引入政府生产性支出拓展了包含灾难冲击的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,数值分析表明,相对于不含政府生产性支出的灾难冲击模型,该模型能够更好地拟合中国宏观经济波动等基本特征。在此基础上,本文分别在规则行事与相机抉择两种情形下对比分析了我国面对灾难冲击时的最优财政货币政策选择问题,研究发现:(1)应对灾难冲击时,相对于相机抉择,规则行事造成的经济福利损失较低;(2)政府生产性支出可以在一定程度上降低灾难冲击对消费和产出等宏观经济变量的影响,但同时会弱化债务对灾难冲击的吸收作用;(3)引入通货膨胀惩罚(或厌恶)后政府可以更多地倚重于债务发行来吸收外部不利冲击,从而缓解相机抉择下的时间不一致性问题,减少经济福利损失。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the new Keynes DSGE model, which includes disaster shock, is extended by introducing government productive expenditure. Numerical analysis shows that the model can better fit the basic characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuation in China compared with the disaster impact model without government productive expenditure. On this basis, this paper compares and analyzes the optimal fiscal and monetary policy choice in the face of disaster shock in the case of rule action and discretionary choice respectively. It is found that: (1) when dealing with disaster shock, the loss of economic welfare caused by rule action is lower than that caused by random choice; (2) Government productive expenditure can reduce the influence of disaster shock on macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output to a certain extent, but at the same time weaken the absorption of debt to disaster shock; (3) after introducing inflation punishment (or aversion), the government can rely more on debt issuance to absorb external adverse shocks, so as to alleviate the time inconsistency under random choice and reduce the loss of economic welfare.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济学院金融系;山东工商学院统计学院;厦门大学经济学院;厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“预期灾难冲击、宏观经济波动与中国财政货币政策工具选择研究”(批准号:16BJL028) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“罕见灾难风险与资产定价:理论拓展与基于我国股市实证研究”(批准号:71471154)的资助
【分类号】：F812.0;F822.0
本文编号：2515629
[Abstract]:In this paper, the new Keynes DSGE model, which includes disaster shock, is extended by introducing government productive expenditure. Numerical analysis shows that the model can better fit the basic characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuation in China compared with the disaster impact model without government productive expenditure. On this basis, this paper compares and analyzes the optimal fiscal and monetary policy choice in the face of disaster shock in the case of rule action and discretionary choice respectively. It is found that: (1) when dealing with disaster shock, the loss of economic welfare caused by rule action is lower than that caused by random choice; (2) Government productive expenditure can reduce the influence of disaster shock on macroeconomic variables such as consumption and output to a certain extent, but at the same time weaken the absorption of debt to disaster shock; (3) after introducing inflation punishment (or aversion), the government can rely more on debt issuance to absorb external adverse shocks, so as to alleviate the time inconsistency under random choice and reduce the loss of economic welfare.
【作者单位】： 厦门大学经济学院金融系;山东工商学院统计学院;厦门大学经济学院;厦门大学王亚南经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“预期灾难冲击、宏观经济波动与中国财政货币政策工具选择研究”(批准号:16BJL028) 国家自然科学基金面上项目“罕见灾难风险与资产定价:理论拓展与基于我国股市实证研究”(批准号:71471154)的资助
【分类号】：F812.0;F822.0
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