中国电信业生产率及其增长研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 04:09

本文选题：电信业 + 生产率　；参考：《吉林大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：过去几十年中，全球通信行业都保持了稳定高速发展态势，信息技术和电信产业的发展加快全球化和世界经济发展的步伐，卫星、光学纤维、移动通信技术以及因特网和万维网的不断进步大大地改善了全球通信状况，降低通信成本，增进各地区交流合作，促进生产和市场全球化运作。中国从上世纪90年代开始对电信业进行了一系列重大改革，通过多次拆分重组引入竞争机制。2008年将中国电信、中国网通、中国移动、中国联通、中国卫通、中国铁通6家基础电信企业重新拆分整合重组为中国移动、中国联通和中国电信三家，这是继1994年成立中国联通以推动双寡头竞争格局，1999年中国移动从中国电信剥离和2001年南北拆分中国电信打破固网单一垄断后，更大规模的电信市场重组。重组之后全行业继续保持健康平稳运行，2011年，全行业实现电信业务总量11772亿元，实现电信业务收入9880亿元，全国电话用户净增1.18亿户，总数累计达到12.7亿户，互联网宽带接入用户达到1.56亿户，新增3020万户。但是目前电信业仍然存在一些突出矛盾和问题，而且面临经济社会发展的新形势，给电信业的发展提出了更高要求。所以，对中国电信业生产率的实证研究就显得极为重要，既扩展电信业理论研究的内涵，又对中国电信业健康有序发展具有重要的现实意义。因此，本文在对大量国内外相关文献进行阅读、梳理、整理的基础上，坚持定性研究与定量研究相结合、实证研究与规范研究相结合的原则，将非参数测度方法引入到电信业生产率研究中，对中国电信业生产率与生产率增长进行研究。在数据的调研方面采取文献调查、社会调查和专家咨询的方式，在数据计算处理方面，综合运用Eviews5.1软件、Deap2.1软件、SPSS19.0软件对数据进行辅助运算分析。本文研究主要分为三个主体部分，第一部分为理论基础研究及现状分析，第二部分为实证研究，第三部分提出对策建议。第一部分，理论研究及现状分析。本部分是本文的理论基础和现实依据，为后续研究提供支撑。 1、相关理论与方法综述，首先从生产率的定义入手，阐明本文研究的内容；其次对效率、生产率及其生产率增长的测量进行说明，最后简单归纳生产率的测度方法。 2、中国电信业发展历程及现状分析。首先明确电信业的基本概念，从电信的定义入手，深入挖掘电信业的内涵，明确本文研究对象为狭义的电信业——电信运营服务业，在此基础上对电信业的经济特征和服务功能进行深入分析。其次，将中国电信业的发展历程分为五个阶段进行分析，从电信运营商角度分析中国电信业的市场结构，并总结中国电信业发展的主要特点。最后，从基础电信业务、增值电信业务、电信网络能力、固定资产投资、经营效益、地域发展差异、省级电信业发展及基础电信运营商等角度对中国电信业的发展现状做深入剖析。第二部分，实证研究。本部分是全文的重点内容，也是本文研究的难点所在，得出本文的主要研究结论，是论文的核心部分。 1、中国电信业资本存量及对国民经济贡献研究。首先运用永续盘存法对中国电信业资本存量进行测算，并给出1952—2010年的电信业资本存量序列，到2010年资本存量已经突破9千亿元。其次，从电信业的直接贡献率、对其他产业的拉动作用及电信业价格对CPI的下拉作用等三个方面深入研究中国电信业对国民经济的直接贡献。最后，运用菲德模型测算中国电信业对国民经济的间接贡献，计算得到电信业每增加1个单位的产出，国民经济最终将增加3.007单位的产出。 2、中国电信业生产率测度实证研究。使用DEA方法中的CCR和BCC模型对中国电信业生产率进行测度。首先，用时间序列数据研究中国电信业在1983—2010年的28年间的生产率变化，看到这些年中国电信业生产率在逐步提高，到2010年达到最佳效率水平，研究认为中国电信业改革卓有成效，并且证实引入竞争可以促进技术进步的论断。其次，用中国大陆的31个省、直辖市和自治区电信业2003—2010年的面板数据作为研究样本，研究中国省际电信业生产率，，看到各省电信业发展不平衡，生产率高低不一，所以不同区域不同省份电信业发展采取的措施应该不同。 3、中国电信业生产率增长率测度实证研究。使用Malmquist生产率指数来测度我国31个省电信业2003—2010年TFP（全要素生产率）增长率，从时间角度和地域角度进行分析，结论显示各省电信业生产率呈现持续增长态势，而且在全要素生产率变动的构成中，技术进步对TFP增长的贡献更大，但是处于不同区域的各省电信业发展程度还是各不相同，进而不同区域不同省份电信业进一步发展需要采取的措施应该不同。第三部分，对策建议。本文的最终落脚点，针对实证研究所得结论及存在问题提出可行的对策。一方面从电信行业内部指出其发展重点，一是加快信息网络演进升级，统筹信息网络整体布局；二是全面深化信息服务应用，培育壮大新兴服务业态；三是推进三网融合全面展开，加快物联网产业化进程；四是提升安全应急保障能力，推进信息网络绿色发展。另一方面从电信政策环境角度提出几点保障措施，第一，加强战略规划指导，优化行业发展环境；第二，加大财税金融支持，完善普遍服务机制；第三，强化电信资源管理，完善市场监管体系；第四，加强国际合作交流，加强人才队伍建设。本文研究具有一定的理论和现实意义，但是由于研究时间和资源等方面的限制，本文研究还是存在诸多不足之处。对研究方向、研究对象、研究过程及研究结论进行反观思考，作者认为从中国电信业和其他国家电信业进行对比性研究，电信业投资、电信业发展与经济增长之间的关系，以及电信业技术进步、技术创新、技术标准化、技术轨道变迁等方面都可以进行进一步的深入研究。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, the global communications industry has maintained a stable and rapid development trend. The development of information technology and telecommunications industry has accelerated the pace of globalization and the development of the world economy. The continuous progress of satellites, optical fiber, mobile communication technology and the Internet and the World Wide Web greatly improved the global communication situation, reduced the cost of communication and enhanced In the 90s of last century, China has carried out a series of major reforms in the telecommunications industry since the 90s of last century. In.2008, China Netcom, China Mobile, China Unicom, China Unicom, China China Unicom, China Tietong 6 basic telecom enterprises have been re divided. The integration and reorganization of China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom three, this is after the establishment of China Unicom in 1994 to promote the double oligarchy competition pattern, in 1999, China Mobile from China Telecom peeled off and 2001 South and North resolution China Telecom break the single monopoly of fixed network, the more large-scale restructuring of the electric letter market. After restructuring, the whole industry continued to remain healthy. In 2011, Kangping operated steadily. In 2011, the whole industry realized a total of 11772 billion yuan in telecom business, 988 billion yuan for telecom business income, 118 million net subscribers in the whole country, 1 billion 270 million households, 156 million Internet broadband access users and 30 million 200 thousand new households. However, there are still some outstanding contradictions and problems in the telecommunication industry, and there are still some problems. The new situation of economic and social development has put forward higher requirements for the development of the telecommunications industry. Therefore, the empirical study of the productivity of the China Telecom industry is very important. It not only expands the connotation of the research of the telecommunications industry, but also has an important significance to the healthy and orderly development of the China Telecom industry.
Therefore, on the basis of reading, sorting, and sorting out a large number of domestic and foreign related literature, we insist on the combination of qualitative research and quantitative research, the principle of combining empirical research with normative research, and introducing the nonparametric measure method into the research of the productivity and productivity growth of the China Telecom industry. According to the investigation, the methods of literature survey, social investigation and expert consultation are used, and Eviews5.1 software, Deap2.1 software, and SPSS19.0 software are used to analyze the data in the data calculation and processing.
This study is divided into three main parts, the first part is the theoretical basis and the status quo analysis, the second part is the empirical study, and the third part puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions.
The first part is theoretical research and current situation analysis. This part is the theoretical basis and realistic basis of this article, providing support for future research.
1, a summary of related theories and methods, first of all, starting with the definition of productivity, clarifies the content of this study; secondly, explains the measurement of efficiency, productivity and productivity growth, and finally sums up the measurement method of productivity.
2, the development process and present situation analysis of the China Telecom industry. Firstly, the basic concept of telecommunications industry is clarified, starting with the definition of telecommunications, digging into the connotation of telecom industry, and making clear that the object of this paper is telecom operation service industry in a narrow sense. On this basis, the economic characteristics and service functions of the telecom industry are analyzed. Secondly, will be made. The development course of China Telecom is divided into five stages, analyzing the market structure of China Telecom industry from the perspective of telecom operators and summarizing the main characteristics of the development of China Telecom industry. Finally, from the basic telecommunications business, value-added telecommunications, telecom network capacity, fixed asset investment, operating efficiency, regional development differences, provincial Telecommunications Industry development and basic telecom operators, etc., make an in-depth analysis of the development of the China Telecom industry.
The second part, empirical research. This part is the key content of the full text, but also the difficult point of this study, and draw the main conclusions of this paper, which is the core part of the paper.
1, the stock of the China Telecom industry capital and the contribution to the national economy. First, we use the perpetual inventory method to calculate the stock of the China Telecom industry capital, and give the stock of the capital stock of the telecom industry from 1952 to 2010. By 2010, the capital stock has exceeded 900 billion yuan. Secondly, the direct contribution rate of the telecommunications industry and the pulling effect on other industries The direct contribution of the China Telecom industry to the national economy is studied in three aspects, such as the price of the telecom industry and the pull down of the CPI. Finally, using the fad model to calculate the indirect contribution of the China Telecom to the national economy, the output of the 1 units per increase in the telecommunications industry is calculated, and the national economy will eventually increase the output of 3.007 units.
2, an empirical study on the productivity measurement of the China Telecom industry. Using the CCR and BCC models in the DEA method to measure the productivity of China Telecom industry. First, the time series data is used to study the productivity changes of the China Telecom industry in the period of 28 years in the period of 1983 to 2010. At the rate level, the research believes that the reform of the China Telecom industry is effective and proves that the introduction of competition can promote technological progress. Secondly, the panel data of the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions of China's telecommunications industry from 2003 to 2010 are used as research samples to study the productivity of China's inter provincial telecommunications industry and to see the unbalanced development of telecom industry in all provinces. Productivity varies from country to country, so the measures taken by different regions in different provinces should be different.
3, the empirical research on the productivity growth rate of China Telecom industry. Using the Malmquist productivity index to measure the growth rate of TFP (total factor productivity) from 2003 to 2010 in 31 provinces of China, the results show that the productivity of telecom industry in all provinces is showing a continuous growth trend, and the total factor productivity changes in all provinces. In the composition of the dynamic, the contribution of technological progress to the growth of TFP is greater, but the development degree of telecom industry in different provinces is different, and the further development of telecom industry in different provinces should be different.
The third part, countermeasures and suggestions. The final foothold of this article, in view of the conclusions and problems of empirical research, put forward feasible countermeasures. On the one hand, it points out its development focus from the telecom industry, one is to accelerate the evolution of the information network and to coordinate the overall layout of the information network; the two is to deepen the application of information services in an all-round way, and to cultivate and strengthen the new clothes. The three is to promote the integration of the three networks and accelerate the industrialization of the Internet of things; the four is to improve the security emergency security ability and promote the green development of the information network. On the other hand, it puts forward several safeguard measures from the perspective of the telecommunication policy environment. First, strengthen the guidance of the strategic planning, optimize the industry development environment; second, increase the financial and Tax finance. To support and improve the universal service mechanism; third, to strengthen telecom resource management and improve market supervision system; fourth, to strengthen international cooperation and exchanges, and to strengthen the construction of talents.
This study has a certain theoretical and practical significance, but because of the limitations of time and resources research, this paper still has many shortcomings. The research direction, the research object, the research process and the research conclusions are reflected. The author thinks that the telecommunications industry in China Telecom and other countries have a comparative study. The relationship between the investment of the letter industry, the development of telecommunication industry and the economic growth, as well as the technological progress of the telecommunication industry, the technological innovation, the standardization of technology, the change of the technology track and so on, can be further studied.

【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F626

【引证文献】