微信产品创新扩散模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 02:51

本文选题：微信产品 + 创新扩散模型　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着移动互联网产业的逐步扩散与广泛应用,其业务范围涉及众多领域,不仅为用户带来新型的生活方式,为各行业带来了新的商机,也导致软件产品间的竞争日益激烈。掌握互联网移动端应用软件的创新研发方向,研究成功的应用软件的创新扩散模型,可以帮助移动互联网产业进行快速发展。微信产品是即时通讯类软件中当之无愧的佼佼者,也是我国研发的基于智能移动端的流量较大的互联网软件之一。本文以微信产品为研究对象分析该产品的创新功能特点,分析该产品创新扩散特征从而建立相应的产品创新扩散模型,并对微信产品未来的创新扩散情况进行预测,从而提出相应的改进策略。本文首先对行文所需要的基础理论进行梳理,对微信产品创新扩散过程进行概念的界定,并阐述了Bass扩散模型以及附随扩散模型的理论以便后文模型建立。分析研究对象微信产品的创新功能特点,并结合Bass扩散模型以及附随扩散模型建立的基础条件进行微信产品创新扩散方面的特征分析,从而确定微信产品在创新扩散方面不符合原有模型的独特点所在,并分析可能影响微信产品创新扩散的要素。其次是微信产品创新扩散模型的建立与模型的实证分析部分。经典的Bass扩散模型在建立前应满足多条研究假设,微信产品由于其虚拟产品的特征,无法满足全部假设,原始模型不适用于微信产品。因此,本文基于基础Bass扩散模型结合微信产品创新扩散的特征加以改进扩展,通过添加模型参数来减少模型的使用限制。本文通过改进扩展得到三种适合分析微信产品创新扩散过程的改进模型,分别为微信产品与互联网业务的附随扩散模型、微信产品发展影响因素时变模型以及结合以上两种改进的总模型。经过实证分析得出,各模型的拟合结果均较好,验证了改进模型的可行性,并且各模型均有其优缺点以及适用的场景。同时,通过各模型的估参结果确定影响微信产品创新扩散的主要影响因素。最后,本文利用改进的创新扩散模型对微信产品未来创新扩散规模的用户数进行预测并验证估计值的准确性。结合预测结果与模型估参结果,为微信产品的后续推广提出四条改进策略,并对本文改进的创新扩散模型的补充研究以及应用领域进行展望。
[Abstract]:With the gradual diffusion and wide application of mobile Internet industry, its business scope involves many fields, which not only brings new life style for users, but also brings new business opportunities for various industries, and also leads to increasingly fierce competition among software products. Mastering the direction of innovation and development of mobile application software and researching the innovation diffusion model of successful application software can help the mobile Internet industry to develop rapidly. WeChat is a worthy leader in instant messaging software, and is also one of the Internet software developed in China based on intelligent mobile terminal. This paper takes WeChat product as the research object to analyze the innovation function characteristic of the product, analyze the innovation diffusion characteristic of the product, establish the corresponding product innovation diffusion model, and predict the innovation diffusion situation of WeChat product in the future. Accordingly, the corresponding improvement strategies are put forward. In this paper, the basic theory needed in the article is firstly combed, the concept of innovation diffusion process of WeChat product is defined, and the theory of Bass diffusion model and accompanying diffusion model is expounded to establish the following model. The characteristics of innovation function of WeChat products are analyzed, and the characteristics of innovation diffusion of WeChat products are analyzed based on the basic conditions of Bass diffusion model and accompanying diffusion model. Therefore, the unique point of WeChat product in innovation diffusion is determined, and the factors that may affect the innovation diffusion of WeChat product are analyzed. The second part is the establishment of WeChat product innovation diffusion model and the empirical analysis of the model. The classical Bass diffusion model should satisfy many research hypotheses before it is established. WeChat products can not satisfy all the hypotheses because of the characteristics of their virtual products. The original model is not suitable for WeChat products. Therefore, based on the basic Bass diffusion model and the characteristics of WeChat product innovation diffusion, the model parameters are added to reduce the use of the model. In this paper, we obtain three improved models for analyzing the innovation diffusion process of WeChat products, which are the accompanying diffusion models of WeChat products and Internet services. The time-varying model of the influencing factors of WeChat product development and the general model combined with the above two improved models. The results of empirical analysis show that the fitting results of each model are good, which verifies the feasibility of the improved model, and each model has its advantages and disadvantages as well as applicable scenarios. At the same time, the main factors influencing the innovation diffusion of WeChat products are determined by the estimation results of each model. Finally, this paper uses the improved innovation diffusion model to predict the number of users of the future innovation diffusion scale of WeChat products and verify the accuracy of the estimated value. Combined with the prediction results and the model estimation results, four improvement strategies are proposed for the further promotion of WeChat products. The supplementary research and application fields of the improved innovation diffusion model in this paper are prospected.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F49;F273.1

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