基于GIS的中长期负荷预测系统的设计与研发

发布时间：2018-03-13 04:39

本文选题：GIS　切入点：中长期负荷预测　出处：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：电力系统的中长期负荷预测是电网规划的重要基础,为电网的改造和扩建、电厂的建设等提供基础数据。一个地区的负荷预测工作,不但要对该地区未来的负荷总量进行预测,还要预测负荷的空间分布状况,以方便制定电源规划、线路规划、资源配置规划等工作。本文中长期负荷预测研究包括用于中长期总量负荷预测的综合次优拟合模型和基于用地信息的负荷空间分布预测方法。综合次优拟合模型以最优可信度为求解目标,近似认为不同方法之间相互独立,无需迭代直接求得近似最优解,在保证较高精度的前提下,提高了计算速度。基于用地信息的负荷空间分布预测是在对用地信息分类统计的基础上,采用自上而下模式,将变电站预测的目标年负荷总量按比例分摊给各类性质的负荷,再求出其土地平均负荷密度,在目前相关的小区数据采集通道不十分顺畅的条件下,实现了负荷空间分布预测。实践表明,该方法具有较好的可操作性和实用性。在理论方法研究的基础上,本文结合国网大连供电公司发展规划平台建设目标,设计并研发了基于GIS的中长期负荷预测系统,实现了“一个开放”和“两个一体化“的建设目标。一个开放即系统的中长期负荷总量预测方法库具有开放性；两个一体化指时间纬度、空间纬度的负荷一体化预测功能以及数据从采集、计算到多样化展示的一体化过程。同时,系统提供了与电网的MIS、EMS及营销系统等信息系统丰富的数据接口,并在该系统上完成了网架信息和负荷信息的管理系统。系统将部分计算结果存储在数据库中,将计算过程与计算结果分离,计算结果可重复利用。系统的数据自动采集模块以后台服务形式自动采集负荷、电流等数据并加工整理,大大减少了工作人员搜集数据的工作量。目前,基于GIS的中长期负荷预测系统已经在国网大连供电公司用于电网规划工作,实践证明,该系统大大提高了工作人员的工作效率和负荷预测精度。
[Abstract]:The medium and long term load forecasting of power system is the important foundation of power network planning, which provides basic data for the reconstruction and expansion of power network and the construction of power plant. The load forecasting work in a region should not only forecast the total load in the future. It is also necessary to predict the spatial distribution of loads in order to facilitate the formulation of power supply planning and line planning. The research on medium and long term load forecasting in this paper includes comprehensive suboptimal fitting model for medium and long term total load forecasting and load spatial distribution forecasting method based on land use information. Comprehensive suboptimal fitting model. With optimal credibility as the goal, It is considered that the different methods are independent of each other, and the approximate optimal solution is obtained directly without iteration. The load spatial distribution forecasting based on land use information is based on the classification and statistics of land use information, and adopts the top-down model to apportion the total target annual load of substation forecast to various kinds of loads in proportion. The average land load density is calculated, and the spatial load distribution prediction is realized under the condition that the data acquisition channel is not very smooth. The practice shows that, This method has good maneuverability and practicability. Based on the research of theory and method, this paper designs and develops a medium and long term load forecasting system based on GIS. The construction goals of "one open" and "two integration" have been achieved. The integrated load forecasting function of spatial latitude and the integration process of data collection, calculation and diversified display. At the same time, the system provides rich data interface with information systems such as MISEMS and marketing systems of power grid. The management system of grid information and load information is completed on the system. The system stores part of the calculation results in the database and separates the calculation process from the calculation results. The calculation results can be reused. The automatic data acquisition module of the system automatically collects load, current and other data in the form of backstage service, which greatly reduces the workload of the staff in collecting data. At present, The medium- and long-term load forecasting system based on GIS has been used in power network planning in Dalian Power supply Company of China Power Network. The practice shows that the system has greatly improved the working efficiency and load forecasting accuracy of the staff.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM715

【参考文献】