基于时间序列分析的电力需求预测研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 22:40

本文选题：电力系统　切入点：电力需求　出处：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：经济增长以及社会发展的主要物质基础就是能源。电力作为能源的主要组成部分之一,也成为了提高我国经济发展,从而使得现代化得以实现的重要物质基础,那么电力工业的发展于社会的发达水平是存在着直接关系的。电力系统的主要任务就是给用户提供稳定、优质的电能,而实现这个任务的前提就是电力调度、运行以及规划部门一定要对用户的用电规律以及变化趋势予以掌握。电力市场中的每一个企业,都一定要对市场脉络进行准确的把握,对用户的用电需求、规律和变化趋势进行了解,制定科学的合理的发展战略以及营销计划,从而完成企业的经济利益的追求。而电力需求预测是每个企业对用户的用电需求、规律以及变化趋势进行了解的有力工具。本文正是基于此大背景下对基于时间序列分析的电力需求预测进行深入研究,以期为后续的电力行业研究及发展提供更好的建议。本文的研究主要分为六个部分：绪论开启了本文的进程,在绪论这一部分,研究背景与意义,已有研究成果的回顾和相关的研究方法都得到了简要的论述。第二部分是理论基础,包括预测、时间序列、克强指数等相关概念的界定、时间序列理论介绍、VAR模型介绍等。第三部分是我国电力需求状况分析,主要介绍了我国电力行业需求现状概述、我国电力需求的影响因素分析以及我国未来电力需求发展趋势分析。第四部分是基于时间序列分析的电力需求预测的实证分析,首先验证了克强指数与经济增长之间的关系,然后介绍了实证分析样本单位的简单情况并对模型的适用性进行了分析,再对模型的指标体系进行构建与说明,最后进行模型的构建,这一部分是论文的主体部分。第五部分是相关建议的提出。最后一部分是结论与展望,为全文做了总结。
[Abstract]:The main material basis of economic growth and social development is energy. As one of the main components of energy, electric power has also become an important material basis for improving the economic development of our country, thus enabling modernization to be realized. Well, there is a direct relationship between the development of the electric power industry and the level of social development. The main task of the power system is to provide stable and high quality electric energy to the users, and the premise of realizing this task is electric power dispatching. The operation and planning departments must master the law and changing trend of the users' electricity consumption. Every enterprise in the electricity market must have an accurate grasp of the market context and the demand for electricity from the users. Understanding the laws and changing trends, formulating a scientific and reasonable development strategy and marketing plan, thus accomplishing the pursuit of the economic interests of the enterprise. Based on this background, this paper makes a deep research on the forecast of electric power demand based on time series analysis. In order to provide better suggestions for the further research and development of the electric power industry, the research in this paper is divided into six parts: the introduction opens the process of this paper, in the introduction part, the research background and significance, The review of existing research results and related research methods have been briefly discussed. The second part is the theoretical basis, including prediction, time series, Keqiang index and other related concepts. The third part is the analysis of power demand in China, which mainly introduces the current situation of power demand in China. The fourth part is the empirical analysis of power demand forecasting based on time series analysis. First, it verifies the relationship between Keqiang index and economic growth. Then it introduces the simple situation of the sample unit and analyzes the applicability of the model, then constructs and explains the index system of the model, and finally builds the model. This part is the main part of the paper. The fifth part is the proposal. The last part is the conclusion and prospect.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TM73

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