卷烟手机订货系统采纳与扩散机理研究

发布时间：2018-07-10 18:50

本文选题：手机订货系统 + 采纳与扩散　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：无线网络和移动技术的快速发展给企业带来了巨大的商机。根据2013年6月底的CNNIC数据显示,我国网民规模达到5.91亿,较2012年底增加2656万人,在新增加的网民中,使用手机上网的比例高达70%,高于使用其他设备上网的网民比例。面对如此大好的移动电子商务前景,商家们纷纷把投资目光转移到了移动电子商务上,他们坚信移动电子商务将为企业带来大量的客户群体和可观的盈利。烟草是云南支柱产业之一,烟草的信息化已历经了十几年的发展,目前来说已比较成熟,尤其是新商盟平台的建设为烟草行业营销方式带来了突破性的发展——从传统的电话订货转变为了网上订货。而随着移动通信网络技术的发展,人们使用手机上网和购物的比重逐年增加,为了抢占移动电子商务市场,云南烟草行业重视和积极开展零售户手机网上订货的建设。但在推广过程中,往往存在着许多的因素影响零售户对手机订货系统的采纳行为,研究这些影响因素对零售户采纳行为的影响程度和方式,能够为推广卷烟手机网上订货系统提供科学性建议,以便让该系统更好的投入使用。因此,探寻影响零售户采纳卷烟手机网上订货系统的因素及其扩散机理对最终建设好手机网上订货服务有着较强的现实意义。本文将借鉴前人关于移动电子商务采纳或技术创新采纳的研究成果,以云南烟草企业开展零售户手机上网订货项目为研究重心,探讨零售户对手机网上订货系统的采纳情况,以期找出影响零售户采纳手机订货系统的关键因素,并根据关键因素建立预测零售户采纳情况的采纳模型,希望能为烟草企业更好地开展手机订货系统的推广工作提供参考和意见。本文采用生存分析法对零售户的采纳情况进行研究,共提出七个影响因素：年龄、经营卷烟年份、地区类型、经营规模、品牌推介能力、商圈和经济发达情况,并相应的提出了七个假设。本文研究数据来自某市烟草营销系统,共提取数据3008条,其中手机网上订货数据为591条,删失数据为260条。本文采用SPSS软件对数据进行描述性统计、Kaplan-Meier分析,并对符合PH假设检验的因素进行了Cox回归分析以及建立Cox预测模型,对不符合PH假设检验的因素进行了分层Cox回归分析。根据分析结果,本文提出的7个假设中成立了6个,并且预测模型的预测能力良好。本文根据得出的研究结果,为管理者提出科学性的推广建议和系统建设建议。最后指出了本研究的不足和局限,并对未来研究趋势进行了展望。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of wireless network and mobile technology has brought huge business opportunities to enterprises. According to CNNIC data at the end of June 2013, the number of Internet users in China reached 591 million, an increase of 26.56 million people compared with the end of 2012. Among the new netizens, the proportion of Internet users using mobile phones was as high as 70, higher than the proportion of Internet users using other devices. In the face of such a great prospect of mobile e-commerce, merchants have turned their investment attention to mobile e-commerce. They firmly believe that mobile e-commerce will bring a large number of customer groups and considerable profits for enterprises. Tobacco is one of the pillar industries in Yunnan. The information technology of tobacco has gone through more than ten years of development. At present, it is quite mature. In particular, the construction of the platform has brought a breakthrough development for the marketing mode of tobacco industry-from the traditional telephone order to the online order. With the development of mobile communication network technology, the proportion of mobile phone online and shopping increases year by year. In order to occupy the mobile electronic commerce market, Yunnan tobacco industry attaches importance to and actively carries out the construction of mobile phone online order for retail households. However, in the process of promotion, there are many factors that affect the adoption of mobile phone ordering system, and the influence of these factors on the adoption behavior of retail households is studied. It can provide scientific advice for promoting the online ordering system of cigarette mobile phone, so that the system can be put into use better. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the factors influencing retailers to adopt the online ordering system of cigarette mobile phones and its diffusion mechanism for the final construction of the online ordering service of mobile phones. This paper will draw lessons from the previous research results on the adoption of mobile electronic commerce or technological innovation, take Yunnan tobacco enterprises to carry out mobile phone online ordering project as the focus of research, and discuss the adoption of mobile phone online ordering system. In order to find out the key factors that affect the adoption of mobile phone ordering system, and according to the key factors to establish the adoption model to predict the adoption of retail households. Hope to provide reference and advice for tobacco enterprises to better carry out the promotion of mobile phone ordering system. This paper studies the adoption of retail households by means of survival analysis, and puts forward seven influencing factors: age, year of cigarette management, regional type, business scale, brand promotion ability, business district and economic development. Seven hypotheses are put forward accordingly. The research data of this paper come from the tobacco marketing system of a certain city. 3008 items of data are extracted, including 591 items of online ordering data and 260 items of censored data. In this paper, the descriptive statistical Kaplan-Meier analysis of the data is carried out by using SPSS software. The Cox regression analysis and the Cox prediction model of the factors that conform to the PH hypothesis test are carried out, and the stratified Cox regression analysis of the factors which do not conform to the PH hypothesis test is carried out. According to the analysis results, six of the seven hypotheses proposed in this paper are established, and the prediction model has good prediction ability. According to the research results, this paper puts forward scientific suggestions for managers and system construction suggestions. Finally, the limitations and shortcomings of this study are pointed out, and the trend of future research is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.8;F274

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