某市电力需求预测分析

发布时间：2018-08-14 13:21

【摘要】：电力需求是电力工业发展的重要依据。电力需求预测是电力公司适应市场经济要求,保证公司投资回报和提高经营效益的基础工作。电力需求预测是指从已知的经济、社会发展和电力需求情况出发,通过对历史数据的分析和研究,探索事物之间的内在联系和发展变化规律,以未来年份经济、社会发展情况的预测结果为依据,对电力需求作出预先的估计和推测,是电力运行、规划、计划、营销、乃至财务预算的基础。因此如何作好电力需求预测在理论与工程上都具有重要的意义。本文首先对某市基本情况、资源概况、经济发展等情况进行了全面的概述和分析,找出某市国民经济和社会发展中存在的结构性矛盾、发展质量、效益不高等主要问题。在介绍某市电力需求现状的同时,对某市用电结构、用电负荷情况进行分析;然后,对电力需求预测的基本原理、特点、分类以及影响电力需求预测的因素进行详细介绍,并对电力需求预测所需要的弹性系数法、产值单耗法、回归分析法等方法进行全面的概述与分析;其次,介绍了某市国民经济和社会规划,利用弹性系数法、回归分析法等方法对某市的社会用电量做了综合预测,并提出了高中低三种预测方案,利用最大负荷小时数法、大用户法、时间序列法对某市的负荷做了预测,并提出了高中低三种预测方案,具体采用哪种方案,需根据实际情况确定,一般采用中方案;最后,介绍了某市电力的发展中存在的主要问题,并提出从短期、长期解决这些问题的对策和某市在电力发展中应该注意的问题。
[Abstract]:Electricity demand is an important basis for the development of electric power industry. Power demand forecasting is the basic work for electric power companies to adapt to the requirements of market economy, ensure the return on investment and improve the operating efficiency. Electricity demand forecasting means that from the known economic, social development and power demand situation, through the analysis and research of historical data, we can explore the internal relationship between things and the law of development and change, so as to explore the economy in the future year. Based on the forecast results of social development, the basis of power operation, planning, marketing, and even financial budget is to estimate and speculate the power demand in advance. Therefore, how to forecast the electricity demand is of great significance in both theory and engineering. This paper first summarizes and analyzes the basic situation, general situation of resources and economic development of a city, and finds out the main problems in the development of national economy and society of a certain city, such as the structural contradiction, the quality of development, the low benefit and so on. While introducing the current situation of electricity demand in a certain city, the paper analyzes the structure and load of electricity in a certain city, and then introduces the basic principle, characteristics, classification and factors influencing the forecasting of electricity demand in detail. The elastic coefficient method, output value unit consumption method, regression analysis method and so on are summarized and analyzed. Secondly, the national economy and social planning of a certain city are introduced, and the elastic coefficient method is used. The method of regression analysis is used to forecast the social electricity consumption of a certain city, and three forecasting schemes are put forward. The maximum load hours method, the large user method and the time series method are used to forecast the load of a certain city. The paper also puts forward three kinds of forecasting schemes for high, middle and low schools, which should be determined according to the actual situation. Finally, the paper introduces the main problems existing in the development of electric power in a certain city, and puts forward the following points: in the short term, the main problems in the development of electric power in a certain city are introduced. Long-term solutions to these problems and a city in the development of electricity should pay attention to.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F426.61

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