劳动力流动、结构转型与货币政策:一个模拟分析
发布时间：2018-11-04 10:35
【摘要】：基于中国部门间劳动力流动以及结构转型的事实,建立了一个包含生产性服务、消费性服务部门的多部门NK-DSGE模型,模拟外生冲击下中国部门间劳动力流动、结构转型与服务深化的特征,结果发现:(1)部门技术冲击具有"外溢性";(2)部门技术冲击引起"服务深化";(3)部门技术冲击以及整体冲击引起部门间劳动力流动,进而产生结构转型。在此基础上,进一步考察结构转型对中国货币政策效应的影响。研究表明,结构转型扩大了货币政策的实际效应,并降低其名义效应。这一发现意味着在评估中国货币政策效应时,忽略结构转型因素将会产生偏误。同时,在结构转型的背景下,基于社会福利的角度,货币政策应该考虑劳动力成本因素,尽管其部分损害了经济增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the facts of interdepartmental labor mobility and structural transformation in China, a multi-sector NK-DSGE model including productive services and consumer service sectors is established to simulate the labor mobility in China under exogenous shocks. The characteristics of structural transformation and service deepening are as follows: (1) the "spillover" of sectoral technology impact; (2) sectoral technology shock causes "service deepening"; (3) sectoral technology shock and overall impact cause interdepartmental labor force flow, and then produce structural transformation. On this basis, the effect of structural transformation on China's monetary policy is further investigated. The research shows that the structural transformation expands the actual effect of monetary policy and reduces its nominal effect. This finding means that in assessing the effects of China's monetary policy, there will be errors in ignoring structural transformation factors. At the same time, in the context of structural transformation, monetary policy should take into account labor cost factors, even though it partially damages economic growth.
【作者单位】： 中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21;F822.0
，
本文编号：2309564
[Abstract]:Based on the facts of interdepartmental labor mobility and structural transformation in China, a multi-sector NK-DSGE model including productive services and consumer service sectors is established to simulate the labor mobility in China under exogenous shocks. The characteristics of structural transformation and service deepening are as follows: (1) the "spillover" of sectoral technology impact; (2) sectoral technology shock causes "service deepening"; (3) sectoral technology shock and overall impact cause interdepartmental labor force flow, and then produce structural transformation. On this basis, the effect of structural transformation on China's monetary policy is further investigated. The research shows that the structural transformation expands the actual effect of monetary policy and reduces its nominal effect. This finding means that in assessing the effects of China's monetary policy, there will be errors in ignoring structural transformation factors. At the same time, in the context of structural transformation, monetary policy should take into account labor cost factors, even though it partially damages economic growth.
【作者单位】： 中共广东省委党校经济学教研部;
【分类号】：F121.3;F249.21;F822.0
，
本文编号：2309564
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