京沪高速铁路优化运营理论与应用研究

发布时间：2018-12-21 17:34

【摘要】：现代化运输业是国民经济的重要基础产业,快速、安全的运输形式可以加速我国的物资、人员流动和资金流转,保障我国社会生产的连续性和高效性、促进我国地区经济发展。伴随着我国经济、社会的不断发展,高速铁路已成为优先发展的战略性新兴产业。高速铁路作为一种高速度、大运量的高效率交通工具,具有投资规模大、技术要求高、系统运行复杂的特点,是一个集技术性和经济性于一体的大型系统工程。为了更好的实现社会的可持续发展,高速铁路的合理建设与高效运行已经变得越来越紧迫。由于高速铁路运行体系的投资巨大,运行复杂,高速铁路自身运营的成本-效益、运行效率又进一步影响着人们对运输方式的选择,从而影响到高速铁路运行企业的经济效益和社会效益。由于我国高速铁路的发展还处于起步阶段,许多问题有待研究,因此,本文的研究内容具有较为明显的创新性和理论研究价值,具体如下：(1)对高速铁路客流量的影响因素进行分析,是制定合理的市场营销策略,实现优化运营的前提。论文从社会、经济、政策、营运策略以及旅客自身条件等方面出发,对高速铁路客流量的影响因素进行了分析。运用基于竞争视野的自主式综合评价对影响高速铁路客流量的主要因素进行了评价,得到了按重要性排序的高速铁路客流量影响因素,并且研究分析了它们与客流量的关系,为铁路部门研究提出优化运营策略提供了可能。(2)对京沪高速铁路目前及未来的客流量变化进行科学预测,是为合理安排车次、座位等运营内容的基础工作。作者通过介绍我国高速铁路运营现状和客流预测的基本理论,在此基础上分析了传统客流预测方法和人工智能预测方法各自的适用情况及优缺点,然后提出了适用于短期客流量预测的支持向量机方法,并利用非参数GARCH模型对预测误差进行修正以提高预测精度。(3)在车次确定的情况下,合理安排不同类型的座位,可以提高每辆车次的经济效益。结合高速铁路出现的某些票额过剩与某些票额不足的问题,为了提高高速铁路整体上座率与收益,本文介绍了与票额分配问题相关的收益管理论的基本概念、理论及方法,继而阐述了高速铁路票额分配方法现状,并通过多角度对高速铁路应用收益管理实现收益最大化票额分配的可能性进行分析。然后构建了在确定约束条件下的票额分配模型,最后利用列生成算法求解模型,证明了模型的可行性。(4)降低高速铁路的动力用电成本,是实现优化运营的重要方面。高速铁路运行中所产生的谐波,通常会对电网行成冲击。在“谁污染、谁治理”的原则下,高速铁路运行中产生的谐波通常会招致电网的处罚,导致运营成本的增长。论文系统介绍了高速铁路谐波的产生机理、高速铁路谐波的特点、电力机车的传动机制,并分析了高速铁路电力机车运行与谐波之间的关系。为治理京沪高速铁路运行中制造的谐波污染提供了新途径。
[Abstract]:The modern transport industry is an important basic industry of the national economy. The rapid and safe transportation form can accelerate the circulation of materials, personnel and funds in our country, guarantee the continuity and high efficiency of our social production and promote the economic development of our country. With the development of our country's economy and society, the high-speed railway has become a strategic emerging industry. The high-speed railway, as a high-speed and large-volume high-efficiency vehicle, has the characteristics of large investment scale, high technical requirements and complex system operation, and is a large-scale system engineering with a technical and economic integration. In order to achieve the sustainable development of the society, the rational construction and efficient operation of the high-speed railway have become more and more urgent. Due to the huge investment of the high-speed railway operation system, the complex operation and the cost-benefit of the high-speed railway itself, the operation efficiency further influences the selection of the transportation mode, thus affecting the economic and social benefits of the high-speed railway operation enterprises. Because of the development of high-speed railway in China, many problems need to be studied. It is the premise of developing reasonable marketing strategy and realizing the optimization operation. The paper analyzes the influencing factors of high-speed railway passenger flow from the aspects of social, economic, policy, operation strategy and passenger's own condition. The main factors that influence the passenger flow of the high-speed railway are evaluated by the independent comprehensive evaluation based on the competition field, and the influence factors of the high-speed railway passenger flow according to the importance are obtained, and the relationship between them and the passenger flow is analyzed and analyzed. It is possible to provide an optimized operation strategy for the research of the railway department. (2) The current and future passenger flow changes of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway are scientifically predicted, and the basic work of the operation content such as the train time and the seat can be reasonably arranged. By introducing the present situation of high-speed railway operation and the basic theory of passenger flow forecast, the author analyzes the application and advantages and disadvantages of the traditional passenger flow forecast method and the artificial intelligence prediction method, and then puts forward the method of support vector machine for short-term passenger flow prediction. and the prediction error is corrected by using a non-parametric GARCH model to improve the prediction accuracy. (3) Reasonable arrangement of different types of seats in the case of vehicle subdetermination can improve the economic benefit of each vehicle. In order to improve the overall high-speed railway, the basic concept, theory and method of the income management theory related to the distribution of the ticket amount are introduced in order to improve the overall seating rate and the income of the high-speed railway. In turn, the present situation of the high-speed railway ticket distribution method is described, and the possibility of maximizing the distribution of the ticket amount is analyzed through the multi-angle high-speed railway application income management. Then, the model of the ticket distribution under the constraint condition is constructed, and the model is solved by the column generation algorithm, and the feasibility of the model is proved. (4) Reducing the power utilization cost of high-speed railway is an important aspect to realize the optimization operation. The harmonics generated in the operation of high-speed railways usually impact the grid lines. Under the principle of 鈥淲ho pollutes, who manages鈥，

本文编号：2389234