灾害链情形下救援物资储备网络设计研究

发布时间：2018-01-30 23:51

本文关键词： 灾害救援灾害链社会捐赠物资储备马尔可夫链　出处：《山东大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：进入21世纪以来,特别是2004年印度洋海啸之后,全球范围内灾害事件数量呈现逐年增加的趋势,灾害事件对经济社会造成的影响也是有增无减,2015年全年灾害事件在全球造成的直接经济损失高达850亿美元,并直接导致超过26 000人丧生,2016年上半年我国因灾死亡人数达到近千人,直接经济损失超过2500亿元人民币。与此同时,由于经济社会发展、生态环境的恶化等因素,灾害事件引发的灾害链,特别是次生灾害对人民生命财产安全构成的威胁无形加剧,特别是地震、台风等大规模、高强度灾害事件往往引发滑坡、泥石流、暴雨、洪水等次生灾害,使得灾区环境进一步恶化,救援难度增加。本文从灾害链的角度研究了灾前的物资储备网络构建问题,基于灾害时间线将灾前、原生灾害、次生灾害阶段联系在一起,同时考虑原生灾害和次生灾害对物资储备决策的影响,并将灾后社会捐赠物资纳入传统物资储备网络,将其作为独立的救援主体,构建了两阶段的物资储备模型,目标是灾前物资储备和灾后物资配送成本最小化。本文将灾害链的不同时间阶段下的需求状态、物资捐赠状态等参数构建为马尔可夫链,不同状态下的参数以马尔可夫概率转移矩阵相互转化,从而构建了灾害链情形下的救援物资储备网络模型,最后通过MATLAB进行求解。通过研究发现,在该模型下可以显著降低灾害救援的成本,同时对救援捐赠行为的考量得到了对灾后受灾区域具有显著影响的行政区域,但同时也发现随着灾害强度的增加,社会捐赠在灾后救援活动中的作用具有一定的局限性,仍需发挥政府救援储备物资主导作用。文章的物资储备网络模型为大规模灾害链情景下的物资救援提供了有效的理论和方法支持,而多主体的救援模型则能有效避免灾后多主体救援的无序性,提高救援活动的效率。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, especially after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the number of disaster events in the world has been increasing year by year, and the impact of disaster events on economic and social is also increasing. The global direct economic losses caused by the disaster events throughout 2015 amounted to $85 billion and resulted directly in the loss of more than 26,000 lives. In 2016, the death toll of disaster in our country reached nearly one thousand, and the direct economic loss exceeded 250 billion RMB. At the same time, due to the economic and social development, the deterioration of ecological environment and other factors. Disaster chain caused by disaster events, especially secondary disasters, the threat to the safety of people's lives and property, especially earthquake, typhoon and other large-scale, high-intensity disaster events often lead to landslides, debris flows. Rainstorm, flood and other secondary disasters, make the disaster area environment further deterioration, the difficulty of rescue increased. This paper studies the construction of pre-disaster material reserve network from the perspective of disaster chain, based on the disaster time line will be before the disaster. The primary and secondary disasters are linked together, considering the influence of the primary and secondary disasters on the material reserve decision-making, and bringing the post-disaster social donated materials into the traditional material reserve network. Taking it as an independent rescue subject, a two-stage material reserve model is constructed, the goal is to minimize the cost of pre-disaster material reserve and post-disaster material distribution. The parameters of material donation are constructed as Markov chain, and the parameters of different states are transformed to each other by Markov probability transfer matrix. Finally, the solution is solved by MATLAB. Through the research, it is found that the cost of disaster relief can be significantly reduced under the model. At the same time, the consideration of rescue donation behavior has been found to have a significant impact on the affected areas of the administrative areas, but also found that with the increase of disaster intensity. The role of social donation in post-disaster relief activities has certain limitations. It is still necessary to give full play to the leading role of the government reserve materials. The material reserve network model in this paper provides an effective theoretical and methodological support for the large-scale disaster chain situation. The multi-agent rescue model can effectively avoid the disorder of multi-agent rescue after disaster and improve the efficiency of rescue activities.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D035

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