基于可靠性的城市应急管理评价及优化研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 20:12

  本文关键词： 城市应急管理 评价 可靠性理论 故障树分析(FTA) 可靠性优化　出处：《北京林业大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：开展城市应急管理评价是提升城市应急能力的一项重要基础性工作,建立科学合理的城市应急管理评价模式对于提高城市应急管理能力以及保障人民群众生命财产安全具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。鉴于目前城市应急管理评价的研究大都没有从系统可靠性的视角进行分析,本文以可靠性理论、应急管理理论以及故障树分析法(FTA)等为基础,创新性地提出一种基于可靠性的城市应急管理评价和优化模式。首先,从系统可靠性的基本观点出发,借鉴以往城市应急能力评价指标体系的研究成果,解析城市应急管理体系的功能构成,提出了包括事前预防、紧急反应、灾情控制和事后恢复4个分系统的城市应急管理功能体系。然后,运用可靠性理论构建了城市应急管理体系的可靠性模型,并结合故障树实现了城市应急管理体系的定量分析。再次,运用可靠性分配理论,根据城市应急管理体系的特点构建了以等同分配法与最小工作量法相结合的可靠性优化方法。最后,以北京市为例,在获取基本单元可靠度数据的基础上,详述了北京市应急管理体系可靠度的计算过程,并根据北京市应急管理体系的可靠度目标值对体系进行了可靠度优化。研究表明,基于可靠性的城市应急管理评价和优化模式能够在统计数据的基础上,实现对城市应急管理水平的定量评价,并能通过提高关键单元的可靠性实现体系的可靠度优化。
[Abstract]:The evaluation of urban emergency management is an important basic work to enhance the ability of urban emergency response. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to establish a scientific and reasonable evaluation model for urban emergency management to improve the ability of urban emergency management and to ensure the safety of people's lives and property. In view of the present evaluation of urban emergency management, it is of great theoretical and practical significance. Most of the studies in this paper have not been analyzed from the point of view of system reliability. Based on reliability theory, emergency management theory and fault tree analysis method (FTAA), this paper proposes an innovative evaluation and optimization model of urban emergency management based on reliability. Based on the previous research results of the evaluation index system of urban emergency response capacity, this paper analyzes the functional composition of the urban emergency management system, and puts forward some suggestions, including pre-prevention and emergency response. Then, the reliability model of urban emergency management system is constructed by using the reliability theory. The quantitative analysis of urban emergency management system is realized based on the fault tree. Thirdly, the reliability distribution theory is used. According to the characteristics of the urban emergency management system, a reliability optimization method combining the equivalent allocation method with the minimum workload method is constructed. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, the reliability data of the basic unit are obtained. The calculation process of the reliability of the emergency management system in Beijing is described in detail, and the reliability of the emergency management system is optimized according to the reliability target value of the emergency management system in Beijing. The evaluation and optimization model of urban emergency management based on reliability can realize the quantitative evaluation of the level of urban emergency management on the basis of statistical data and optimize the reliability of the system by improving the reliability of key units.
【学位授予单位】：北京林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63
，

本文编号：1522772