基于社会仿真理论和方法的预见性政府构建研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 17:18

本文选题：预见性政府　切入点：预见性管理　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着当今社会运行速度的加快,"预见性政府"的理念应运而生。社会仿真作为虚拟实践的方法,可以通过建模仿真技术对社会相关的政治机构、经济实体、社会群体,以及能对社会产生重大影响的国家关键基础设施等进行仿真模拟,从而对构建预见性政府大有裨益。本文通过发掘我国古代利用仿真模拟方法进行政府预见性管理的思想、方法及案例,追溯仿真模拟方法与预见性政府管理的历史渊源,探索不同的仿真模拟方法在古代"政府"(统治者)的预见性管理中发挥的作用。本文还基于系统动力学的仿真模拟方法对现代政府如何进行预见性管理进行了实证研究。以天津市的交通政策为例,使用Vensim软件,对其系统内部和系统之间的因果关系及反馈回路加以分析,建立系统的流图和结构方程,并对其进行相关的参数估计和检验,通过调整投资、限行、限号、收费等多个政策变量,发现其存在的显著关系,做出影响分析模型,预测天津市未来的交通运行状态,由此对天津市在交通领域的预见性管理提出建议。社会的发展促使我国政府在进行社会治理的过程中要与科学技术相结合,如果在国家治理领域特别是在政策制定的过程中,适当的运用社会仿真理论和方法,将对我国政府进行预见性管理大有裨益,并对我国经济社会发展和行政管理体制改革有重大的意义。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of social operation, the concept of "predictable government" emerges as the times require.As a method of virtual practice, social simulation can be used to simulate the political institutions, economic entities, social groups and the key national infrastructure which can have a significant impact on the society through modeling and simulation technology.Thus, it is of great benefit to the building of a predictable government.In this paper, the ideas, methods and cases of using simulation simulation to manage government predictability in ancient China are explored, and the historical origin of simulation and predictive government management is traced back.This paper explores the role of different simulation methods in the predictive management of ancient "government" (rulers).Based on the simulation method of system dynamics, this paper makes an empirical study on how to manage predictability in modern government.Taking Tianjin traffic policy as an example, using Vensim software, the causality and feedback loop within and between systems are analyzed, and the flow diagram and structural equation of the system are established, and the relevant parameters are estimated and tested.By adjusting the policy variables, such as investment, line restriction, number limit, charge and so on, we find out the significant relationship between them, make an impact analysis model, and predict the future traffic operation state of Tianjin.Therefore, some suggestions are put forward for the predictive management in the field of transportation in Tianjin.The development of society urges our government to combine with science and technology in the process of social governance. If the theory and method of social simulation are properly used in the field of national governance, especially in the process of policy making,It will be of great benefit to the government of our country, and will be of great significance to the economic and social development of our country and the reform of the administrative management system.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：D63

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