三峡库区移民生态减贫策略的优化仿真研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 11:13

本文选题：系统动力学　切入点：生态环境　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：研究目标:优化三峡库区移民生态减贫策略。研究方法:运用协整分析探索移民贫困的关键影响因素,构建了库区生态减贫系统动力学模型,并以重庆万州为例进行了仿真模拟。研究发现:地质灾害与土地、降雨、环保投资,脱贫人口与耕地、饮用水、人均纯收入间存在长期协整关系;环境污染和地质灾害治理方案均可减少贫困发生率;协调发展方案减贫效果最佳,万州区有望提前实现减贫目标。研究创新:构建了三峡库区生态减贫的系统动力学理论模型,揭示了地质灾害、生态环境和移民贫困三者之间的复杂生克关系和动态反馈机制。研究价值:提出了三峡库区兼顾生态环境保护和地质灾害减轻的系统性减贫策略。
[Abstract]:Objective: to optimize the strategy of ecological poverty reduction in the three Gorges Reservoir area.Methods: using cointegration analysis to explore the key influencing factors of emigration poverty, the dynamic model of ecological poverty reduction in reservoir area was constructed, and the simulation of Wanzhou in Chongqing was carried out.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between geological hazards and land, rainfall, environmental protection investment, poverty alleviation population and cultivated land, drinking water, per capita net income, environmental pollution and geological hazard control programs can reduce the incidence of poverty;Coordinated development programs have the best effect on poverty reduction, and Wanzhou District is expected to achieve poverty reduction targets ahead of schedule.Research innovation: the theoretical model of ecological poverty reduction in the three Gorges Reservoir area is constructed, and the complex relationship and dynamic feedback mechanism among geological hazards, ecological environment and emigration poverty are revealed.Research value: put forward the systematic poverty reduction strategy of taking ecological environment protection and geological disaster mitigation into account in the three Gorges Reservoir area.
【作者单位】：中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“生态环境和地质灾害孕贫机制与减贫策略研究——以三峡库区为例”(71473231/G0305)的资助
【分类号】：D632.4;F323.8;X2

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