一种工程中突发事件应急方案的选择方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-19 20:01

本文选题：多属性风险决策 + 模糊事故树　；参考：《华中科技大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：工程施工中越来越频繁发生的突发事件造成了大量的人员伤亡和巨大的社会财产损失,引起了社会各界人士的广泛关注。为了最大程度上减少事故造成的损失,需要在事故发生的最初阶段评估和选择最佳应急方案。由于突发事件带来的影响往往是多方面的,很难直接判定其造成的损失,需要决策者从多个方面考虑采取不同应急方案后事故可能造成的损失程度。因此,本论文根据具体工程施工中突发事件的特点,结合往年相似的案例,建立关于应急响应的多属性风险决策模型,并从决策信息的确定和对方案的综合评估两个方面展开研究。由于突发事件具有动态性和风险性的特征,本文运用模糊事故树分析法得到模型中的情景概率。为了使模型中的属性权重更加合理,本文首先运用层次分析法求解评估准则的主观权重向量,并采用熵值法确定准则的客观权重向量,然后采用离差最大化方法将各属性的主观权重和客观权重相结合,从而确定属性的组合权重。为了考虑在决策分析过程中决策者的心理行为,运用前景理论方法评估各方案,并采用端点法比较各方案的评估值,进而对应急方案排序。最后,本文以起重作业和高空作业同时操作时起重机械撞击到高排架的事故为例,采用提出的混合评估方法评估各应急方案,证明了该方法的可行性。
[Abstract]:The sudden events that occur more and more frequently in the engineering construction cause a large number of casualties and huge loss of social property, which has aroused the widespread concern of the people from all walks of life. In order to minimize the loss caused by the accident, it is necessary to evaluate and select the best emergency plan in the initial stage of the accident. It is difficult to directly judge the losses caused by emergencies because the impact of emergencies is often various. It is necessary for decision makers to consider the extent of losses caused by accidents after adopting different emergency plans from many aspects. Therefore, according to the characteristics of unexpected events in the construction of specific projects, combined with similar cases in previous years, this paper establishes a multi-attribute risk decision-making model for emergency response. And from the decision information and the comprehensive evaluation of the two aspects of the study. Due to the dynamic and risk characteristics of unexpected events, this paper uses fuzzy accident tree analysis to obtain the scenario probability in the model. In order to make the attribute weight in the model more reasonable, this paper first uses AHP to solve the subjective weight vector of the evaluation criterion, and uses the entropy method to determine the objective weight vector of the criterion. Then the subjective weight and objective weight of each attribute are combined with the deviation maximization method to determine the combined weight of attributes. In order to consider the psychological behavior of decision makers in the process of decision analysis, the prospect theory method is used to evaluate each scheme, and the endpoint method is used to compare the evaluation value of each scheme, and then the emergency plan is ranked. Finally, taking the accident of crane colliding into high bent frame as an example, this paper uses the mixed evaluation method to evaluate the emergency schemes, which proves the feasibility of this method.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TU71;D035

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