基于有限理性理论的三峡大坝工程政策影响评估

发布时间：2018-06-09 14:29

  本文选题：三峡大坝 + 发展项目　； 参考：《华中科技大学》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：一个可行的全球化系统不仅需要不同国家间的内部联系,同时也需要进行国际一体化,这种一体化超越了由策划差异引起的经济差距,不可控的环境破坏和驯服式的社会剥脱。如果全球化体系中的各个民族国家的政治能够尊重并维护彼此的相互依赖性和双赢合作,而不是彼此孤立和侵犯主权,那么上述的全球性问题就能解决。如果没有这些价值观,在社会经济损失,长期贫困和边缘化问题面前,很多国家就不堪一击。通常这样就会导致如下情况,一个国家的宏观经济政策和发展项目的决策会被一些外来的国家或者有着国际影响力的组织所操控,这些外来的力量只在乎自己的或者少数人的利益,对其他人和事则漠不关心。当一个国家的组织和政治不够强大,不能允许并支持自己政府的领导者控制并决定与国家经济,环境,文化和社会特性需求相一致的经济发展之路时,那么类似的问题也会随之而来。权力的不平衡性最能体现于发达国家,发展中国家或者贫困国家之间,这使得三峡大坝工程成为了这样一种发展项目,它在一定层面上符合合理性决策的要求。这个工程很好地体现了在全球化体系带来的挑战面前,中国政府具有强大,果敢,独立而明晰的决策能力。 对于发展中国家和低收入国家而言,联合国的千年发展目标(今年逾期)的实现需要决策和执行能力,这种能力不仅体现在无障碍的发展项目上,还体现在诸如三峡大坝等具有挑战性的项目上,这个项目也成为一种现代化的标志和脱贫的有效工具。三峡大坝带来全面的经济效益,对人类和经济发展也带来了积极影响,主要体现在防洪(社会,经济)上。从可持续发展维度来说,尽管这带来多方利益,但三峡大坝项目也富有争议,因为它在社会和环境方面造成了影响。但是,毋庸置疑它在本地发展,国家发展和全球发展方面作出了利民的贡献,所以这样一个项目决策所体现的合理性需要深入的研究和不偏不倚的讨论。 三峡大坝带来的重迁问题一直是人们尖锐批评的对象。就此可以参考《人类发展的条件》(尤其是最近研究所得出的结论)里的指标,书里所说的“可持续发展维度”被作为一种范例,来展示和评估重迁前后的宜昌居民的生活状况。现在的政策评估在名为“决策理论评估”的方法下执行,这种方法利用了所谓的“多属性效用分析”。整体而言,文章中所用的决策形式结合了文献综述和个案分析,其主要目标是评估三峡大坝作为一个发展项目的政策影响,同时决定工程决策中的合理性状况。这项研究的另一个重要目标是展现中国政府决策风格中具有指导性的一面,同时也描述面对尖锐的批评和抵制改变的行为时,中国政府为发展而采用的权力政治所具备的特性,这定义了当今的全球化挑战问题。通过涵盖这些目标,本研究可以得出一个对世界其他国家和地区都很重要的结论,这对于那些非洲国家来说尤其重要,因为疲软的政策决策已然成为它们的发展瓶颈。 这项研究的成果整体展示了三峡大坝工程的决策还没有达到完全合理性的状态,因为该工程没有可替代的方案,而这是本论文中的参考文献《决策系统的理性模式》所需满足的要求。然而,没有可替代的方案表明了三峡大坝的重要性,而并非表明其决策过程中非合理性一面。就全球脱贫,慢性死亡问题和二氧化碳的排放而言,中国做出了积极而切实的贡献,这是证明该工程具有合理性意义的无可争辩的事实,不管这种合理性应被标注为低层次的理性,有限理性还是绝对理性。在全球化大氛围下,不管是本地,区域还是国际层面都可以发现项目的利益相关者,在分析大坝决策的合理性时,这也应该被当做新的综合指标加以考虑。这项研究还有另外的贡献,那就是希望三峡大坝的决策过程具有全球性的启示,并促进世界秩序的重塑,让每个国家有自由去选择适合本国发展需要的政策导向,同时在造福世界的同时不用担心其他方推卸责任,威胁恐吓和政策破坏的行为。
[Abstract]:A viable global system requires not only internal relations between different countries, but also international integration, which transcends the economic gap caused by planning differences, uncontrollable environmental destruction and taming social stripping. If the politics of the countries in the globalized system can be respected and maintained The global problems can be solved by the mutual dependence and win-win cooperation, not the isolation and sovereignty of each other. Without these values, many countries are vulnerable in the face of social economic losses, long-term poverty and marginalization. This will often lead to the following situation, a country's macroeconomic situation. Policy and development projects are manipulated by foreign countries or organizations with international influence. These external forces only care about their own or minority interests and are indifferent to others. When the organization and politics of a country are not strong enough, it can not allow and support the control of the leaders of their own government. When it comes to the economic, environmental, cultural and social characteristics of the country, the same problems will follow. The imbalance of power is most reflected in the developed countries, the developing countries or the poor countries, which makes the Three Gorges Dam project a kind of development project, which is in a certain level. It meets the requirements of rational decision-making. This project is a good embodiment of the strong, bold, independent and clear decision-making capabilities of the Chinese government in the face of the challenges of the global system.
For developing countries and low-income countries, the implementation of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals (overdue this year) needs decision-making and implementation capabilities, not only in barrier free development projects, but also on challenging projects such as the Three Gorges Dam, which is also a symbol of modernization and a poverty reduction. The Three Gorges dam has brought comprehensive economic benefits and has brought positive effects on human and economic development, mainly in flood control (social and economic). From the dimension of sustainable development, although it brings many benefits, the Three Gorges Dam project is also controversial because of its social and environmental impact. There is no doubt that it has made a great contribution to the local development, national development and global development, so the rationality of such a project decision needs in-depth research and impartial discussion.
The resettlement problem of the Three Gorges dam has been a target of sharp criticism. It can be referred to the indicators in the conditions of human development (especially the conclusions of recent studies). The "sustainable development dimension" described in the book is used as an example to demonstrate and assess the living conditions of Yichang residents before and after the relocation. The policy evaluation is carried out under the method named "decision theory assessment". This method uses the so-called "multi attribute utility analysis". Overall, the decision-making forms used in the article are combined with literature review and case analysis. The main objective is to assess the policy impact of the Three Gorges Dam as a development project and determine the project decision at the same time. Another important goal of this study is to show the guiding side of the Chinese government's decision-making style, and also to describe the characteristics of the power politics that the Chinese government has adopted for development in the face of sharp criticism and resistance to change, which defines the challenge of globalization today. Covering these goals, this study can draw a very important conclusion to other countries and regions of the world, which is particularly important for African countries, as weak policy decisions have become a bottleneck for their development.
The results of the study show that the decision of the Three Gorges Dam project has not yet reached a fully reasonableness, because there is no alternative plan for the project, and this is a reference in this paper, the rational model of the decision system. It does not demonstrate the irrational side of its decision-making process. China has made a positive and practical contribution to the global poverty reduction, chronic death and carbon dioxide emissions. This is an indisputable fact that the project is reasonable, whether it should be labeled as a low-level rationality, limited rationality or no matter what it is. In the atmosphere of globalization, the stakeholders of the project can be found at both the local, regional and international levels. This should also be considered as a new comprehensive indicator in the analysis of the rationality of dam decision-making. This research has another contribution, that is, the decision-making process of the Three Gorges dam is global. The enlightenment, and the reshaping of the world order, let each country have the freedom to choose the policy orientation suitable for the needs of its own development, while at the same time benefiting the world without worrying about the other parties to shirk the responsibility and threaten the acts of intimidation and policy destruction.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：TV632;D630
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本文编号：2000048