基于不同情景的群体性突发事件随机演化博弈模型

发布时间：2018-06-16 00:04

本文选题：群体性突发事件 + 演化博弈　；参考：《运筹与管理》2016年04期

【摘要】：针对群体性突发事件在不确定环境下的演化问题,基于演化博弈理论研究了群体性突发事件中强势群体与弱势群体策略选择的演化过程,依据复制动态方程得到了两个群体的行为演化规律。考虑到群体性突发事件演化过程中的随机扰动,引入高斯白噪声来反映群体性突发事件演化过程中受到的随机干扰,建立了不确定环境下群体性突发事件的随机演化博弈模型,分析了弱势群体与强势群体行为策略的稳定性。运用随机Taylor展开理论和It^o型随机微分方程对模型进行了求解,并对模型进行情景仿真模拟,研究结果表明:在不确定环境下,受随机因素的干扰影响,当采取抗争策略成本较大时,随着白噪声强度减小,弱势群体会较快妥协,采取合作策略;当采取强硬策略获取额外收益较大时,随着白噪声强度增大,强势群体更倾向于采取强硬策略。结合不同情景仿真结果,为群体性突发事件"情景-应对"提供相关决策建议。
[Abstract]:Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper studies the evolution process of the choice of strategy between the strong group and the weak group in the group unexpected event under the uncertain environment. Based on the replicative dynamic equation, the behavior evolution of two populations is obtained. Considering the random disturbance in the evolution of group emergencies, Gao Si white noise is introduced to reflect the random disturbance in the evolution of group emergencies, and a stochastic evolutionary game model of group emergencies in uncertain environment is established. This paper analyzes the stability of the behavior strategies of the weak and the strong groups. The stochastic Taylor expansion theory and the stochastic differential equation of it type are used to solve the model, and the simulation of the model is carried out. The results show that under the uncertain environment, the model is affected by the interference of random factors. With the decrease of white noise intensity, the vulnerable group will compromise quickly and adopt cooperative strategy when the cost of adopting resistance strategy is high, and when the strong strategy is used to obtain the extra income, the white noise intensity increases. Strong groups tend to take tough strategies. Combined with the simulation results of different scenarios, the relevant decision suggestions are provided for the "situation-response" of group emergencies.
【作者单位】：上海大学管理学院;鲁东大学商学院;华东师范大学上海数字化教育装备工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71203134,71372100,71603109);国家自然科学基金重大培育项目(91024002)
【分类号】：D035

【相似文献】