地方领导人更替与中国国有经济投资行为——基于省际面板数据的分析

发布时间：2018-08-08 14:50

【摘要】：在地方领导人更替的条件下,国有经济投资行为必然会对此做出反应,并进一步影响地区经济的发展。使用中国1994-2013年相关省际面板数据,采用系统GMM方法对此进行定量分析,研究发现省委书记更替对当年的国有经济投资具有显著的负向影响,而省长更替对当年的国有经济投资则具有显著的正向影响。在将更替形式区分为实质性更替与连任的情形后,研究发现地方领导人的实质性更替对国有经济投资的影响十分显著,而连任对于国有经济投资的影响则显著性较低。上述研究结论表明,政府相关部门应适时制定一些投资指导政策,以降低地方领导人更替阶段的国有经济投资波动幅度,维持地区经济的平稳增长。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of the change of local leaders, the investment behavior of state-owned economy will inevitably react to it and further affect the development of regional economy. Using the relative provincial panel data from 1994 to 2013 in China, the quantitative analysis is carried out by using the systematic GMM method. It is found that the change of provincial party secretary has a significant negative impact on the investment of state-owned economy in that year. The change of governors has a significant positive impact on state-owned investment in those years. After dividing the replacement form into substantive replacement and re-election, the study found that the substantial change of local leaders had a significant impact on the investment of state-owned economy, but the impact of re-election on the investment of state-owned economy was relatively low. The above conclusions show that the government departments concerned should formulate some investment guidance policies in time in order to reduce the fluctuation of investment in the state-owned economy in the stage of local leadership turnover and to maintain the steady growth of the regional economy.
【作者单位】：山东大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“企业原始创新的决定因素与影响效应研究”(项目编号:14AJL008) 国家自然科学基金青年项目“互联网时代定向广告与企业竞争行为分析”(项目编号:71502092)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：D630.3;F121.21

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