危机转化原理和方法研究

发布时间：2018-10-31 10:14

【摘要】：现阶段,我国正处于构建和谐社会,共筑中国梦的关键时期,在社会诸领域发生危机的可能性增大,从各个方面对政府的管理能力以及公众的正常生活形成挑战,以往的“非常态”也逐渐转变为“常态”。危机会带来危险,同时也酝酿着机会。对危机的成功处置可以最终实现危险向机会的转化;反之,危机将直接导致灾难的发生。发现、培育潜在的成功机会,就是危机转化的精髓。回顾国内外研究,缺乏针对危机转化的系统性和针对性研究。鉴于此,建立危机转化的新方法体系,面对“风险社会”的到来,打造危机管理升级版显得极为必要。本文引入危机管理、机会发现和复杂网络的理论与方法,探索危机管理的新思路,提出危机转化的理念以及对应的方法。本文研究共分为8个部分,具体如下:第1章主要论述研究背景、研究目的和研究意义,分析国内外研究现状并简要评述。第2章分析了国内外从古至今的危机转化思想,针对典型的危机转化案例进行了剖析,初步构建了危机转化理论框架。第3章构建了危机“名利”情景空间,建立了危机决策情景。剖析了危险情景的类型和特点,机会情景的类型和特点,以及危机情景关联,包括危机情景映射、危机转化度概念模型。第4章提出了危机转化情景量化的相关方法。分析了危机情景因素以及危机情景信息知识表达框架,并且建立了危机情景知识元,在此基础上的危机情景“名利”时空量化的方法。第5章,危机转化的机会发现方法。提出了机会发现的特点、机会发现案例推理技术、基于条件创造的机会发现方法,建立危机转化贝叶斯网络用以模拟仿真危机转化路径。第6章基于危机转化贝叶斯网络,构建了危机转化路径挖掘方法,对危机转化路径进行系统评价。第7章,实证分析。针对联想并购IBM PC事件,进行危机转化案例仿真,以验证所提出的危机转化理论和方法体系的可行性和科学性。第8章,对全文进行总结与研究展望。本文创新点在于(1)构建危机转化理论新体系,融合危机管理、情景分析、机会发现、复杂网络等理论方法,有效整合与完善传统的危机管理理论,归纳研究整理危机转化的思想与模型,构建危机转化理论新体系。(2)提出危机转化的机会效用最大化新模式,在条件创造方法的辅助下,通过机会挖掘,探索危险转化的可行路径,加速危险的消减。(3)建立危机转化的危机转化的最优路径,探索危机的演化与转化规律,进一步发展与完善危机管理方法体系。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, our country is in the key period of constructing harmonious society and building Chinese Dream altogether. The possibility of crisis in various fields of society is increased, which challenges the management ability of the government and the normal life of the public from all aspects. The former "abnormal" also gradually changed into "normal". Crises are dangerous and opportunities are brewing. The successful handling of the crisis can finally realize the transformation from danger to opportunity; conversely, the crisis will directly lead to disaster. It is found that cultivating potential opportunities for success is the essence of crisis transformation. Review of domestic and foreign studies, lack of systemic and targeted research on crisis transformation. In view of this, it is necessary to set up a new method system of crisis transformation and to build an upgraded version of crisis management in the face of the arrival of "risk society". This paper introduces the theories and methods of crisis management, opportunity discovery and complex network, explores new ideas of crisis management, and puts forward the concept of crisis transformation and corresponding methods. This paper is divided into eight parts. The main contents are as follows: chapter 1 mainly discusses the research background, the purpose and significance of the research, analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad and briefly comments on it. Chapter 2 analyzes the thought of crisis transformation from ancient to present at home and abroad, analyzes the typical cases of crisis transformation, and constructs the theoretical framework of crisis transformation. The third chapter constructs the crisis "fame and fortune" scene space, establishes the crisis decision-making situation. This paper analyzes the types and characteristics of dangerous situations, the types and characteristics of opportunity scenarios, and the relevance of crisis scenarios, including the mapping of crisis scenarios and the conceptual model of the degree of crisis transformation. Chapter 4 puts forward the relevant methods of quantifying the situation of crisis transformation. This paper analyzes the factors of crisis situation and the frame of knowledge expression of crisis scenario information, and establishes the knowledge element of crisis scenario, and on the basis of it, the method of spatio-temporal quantification of crisis scenario "fame and profit" is put forward. Chapter 5, opportunity discovery method of crisis transformation. The characteristics of opportunistic discovery, the case-based reasoning technology of opportunistic discovery, the opportunistic discovery method based on condition creation, and the establishment of crisis transformation Bayesian network are proposed to simulate the path of crisis transformation. In chapter 6, based on the Bayesian network of crisis transformation, we construct a method of mining the path of crisis transformation, and evaluate the path of crisis transformation systematically. Chapter 7, empirical analysis. In order to verify the feasibility and scientific nature of the theory and method system of crisis transformation, the crisis transformation case simulation is carried out in view of Lenovo's merger and acquisition of IBM PC. Chapter 8 summarizes and prospects the full text. The innovation of this paper lies in: (1) constructing a new system of crisis transformation theory, integrating crisis management, scenario analysis, opportunity discovery, complex network and so on, effectively integrating and perfecting the traditional crisis management theory. Induces and studies the thought and model of crisis transformation, constructs a new system of crisis transformation theory. (2) puts forward a new model of maximizing the opportunity utility of crisis transformation, with the help of condition creation method, through opportunity mining, Explore the feasible path of risk transformation, accelerate the risk reduction. (3) establish the optimal path of crisis transformation, explore the evolution and transformation law of crisis, and further develop and improve the crisis management method system.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63

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