基于事故树法的城市大型活动踩踏事故应急管理研究

发布时间：2019-06-07 16:21

【摘要】：随着国民经济的快速发展,国内大型活动的举行数量日趋增多,致使在有限的公共空间中人群活动的频度和密度极度增长,从而使由人群膨胀聚集导致的踩踏事故风险概率大为提高。目前对大型活动踩踏事故的研究缺乏对其自身危险性的有效评价,安全风险控制尚无成熟的理论方法,现有理论模型和方法缺乏通用性。因而,建立一套适用于大型活动风险评价指标体系和风险评价模型显得尤为重要。本文基于风险危机管理的视角,通过对中外大型活动踩踏致因的剖析和归结,从大型活动场所的设施设备风险、人群因素和构建物设计风险、外部环境因素等方面分析其踩踏事故的原因,着重强调预防及控制踩踏事故的关键是提高安全管理水平,加强人群的安全疏导和教育等。本文通过案例分析法,借鉴现有学者的踩踏事故指标体系研究成果,并引入事故树法,追踪大型活动踩踏事故的致因规律,构建了大型活动踩踏事故树。针对踩踏事故风险中传统数学模型难以量化的难题,通过构建大型活动踩踏事故风险评价指标体系,在综合权衡其他各种安全评价方法优劣的基础上,提出了适合大型活动踩踏事故风险安全评价方法——突变级数法,并对大型活动踩踏事故风险进行测评,得到的量化评估值与实际情况吻合。实例验证表明,本文所构建的指标体系和所采用的评估方法可以很好的解决踩踏事故危害评估难题,为防患踩踏事故风险给予可靠的理论和方法支持。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of the national economy, the number of large-scale activities in China is increasing day by day, resulting in the extreme increase in the frequency and density of crowd activities in the limited public space. As a result, the risk probability of stampede accident caused by crowd expansion and aggregation is greatly increased. At present, the research on stampede accident of large-scale activities is lack of effective evaluation of its own risk, there is no mature theoretical method of safety risk control, and the existing theoretical models and methods are lack of generality. Therefore, it is particularly important to establish a set of risk evaluation index system and risk evaluation model suitable for large-scale activities. Based on the perspective of risk crisis management, this paper analyzes and sums up the causes of stampede in large-scale activities at home and abroad, from the facilities and equipment risks, crowd factors and construction design risks of large-scale event places. The causes of stampede accident are analyzed from the aspects of external environmental factors, and it is emphasized that the key to prevent and control stampede accident is to improve the level of safety management and strengthen the safety guidance and education of the crowd. Through the case analysis method, this paper draws lessons from the existing scholars' research results of stampede accident index system, and introduces the accident tree method to track the cause law of stampede accident in large-scale activities, and constructs the stampede accident tree of large-scale activities. In order to solve the problem that the traditional mathematical model is difficult to quantify the risk of stampede accident, by constructing the risk evaluation index system of stampede accident in large-scale activities, on the basis of comprehensively weighing the advantages and disadvantages of other safety evaluation methods, The sudden change series method, which is suitable for the risk safety assessment of stampede accidents in large-scale activities, is put forward, and the risk of stampede accidents in large-scale activities is evaluated. The quantitative evaluation value is in good agreement with the actual situation. The example shows that the index system and the assessment method used in this paper can solve the problem of stampede hazard assessment, and give reliable theoretical and methodological support for the prevention of stampede accident risk.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：D63

【参考文献】