国债对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2017-12-31 14:42

本文关键词：国债对经济增长影响的实证研究　出处：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：希腊在2009年末爆发了债务危机,债务危机的多米诺骨牌效应逐渐由希腊扩散到整个欧盟区,并且开始逐渐发展成为制约全球经济复苏的障碍。我国从1981年开始恢复发行国债,之后国债规模急剧增长,国债在促进经济发展、提高国民生活水平方面发挥了极其重要的作用。尤其是1998以来,我国经济发展受到亚洲金融危机的冲击,同时国内出现社会有效性需求不足。为了抵御危机并维持经济的稳定增长,我国开始实施宽松性、扩张性的财政政策。事实证明,国债在扩大国内有效需求、促进经济快速增长和提高就业率方面起到至关重要的作用。但与此同时国债的各种风险也日益凸现,截止到2011年末,我国国债余额实际数为72044.51亿元。在欧债危机背景下,研究国债与经济增长的关系,以及我国是否有爆发“主权债务危机”的可能性是一个值得探讨的问题。本文共分为五个部分。第一部分是引言,介绍本文的写作背景及研究公共债务与经济增长之间关系的意义,并介绍国内外学者关于国债对经济增长关系的研究现状；第二部分概括了我国发行国债的演变历程,同时通过4个衡量指标对我国的承债能力进行分析；第三部分,简述李嘉图等价定理及经济增长模型,并从理论上分析国债与经济增长之间的关系；第四部分,根据不同的数据处理方式将实证部分划分为两部分：不分段的数据处理方式、分段的数据处理方式。从国债规模和经济增长的关系、初始国债水平和经济增长的关系,这两个角度研究包括中国在内的15个国家的国债与经济增长之间关系,并对其进行了方法和结论上的比较；第五部分,根据前面几章的分析,得出结论并提出了防范我国发生债务危机的几项建议。本文通过实证分析得到的结论有：国债在欧债危机肆虐的大环境下,国债对经济增长已经不能像之前一样,能够为其提供强有力的支持,在欧洲诸国中,债务沉重的负担已经拖累了经济增长的步伐。无论对于发达国家还是发展中国家,从长远来看,过高的债务水平对经济增长都将产生不利的影响。而债务使用的效率水平取决于政府管理的效率水平,良好的监控和资金有效地规划才能良好地运用国债这一政策工具,从而为周期性的经济增长服务。对于我国而言,中央政府财政状况基本良好,但是我国地方政府存在投融资平台数量多、总负责规模大且持续上升,应该予以警惕,防止我国债务危机的发生。本文的创新点是将国债规模对经济增长的影响和初始国债规模对经济增长的影响进行对比。对于初始国债规模对经济增长的影响的研究是将1981-2010年的数据进行分段处理：将1981-2010年的数据划分为6段,每5年划分为一个时间段。在每个时间段内：1981,1986,1991,1996,2001,2006为期初年份。这样的做的结果是将分阶段的初始国债规模对经济增长的研究与不分阶段的国债规模对经济增长的研究进行对比,分别从长期和短期两个角度更加深入的揭示了国债与经济增长的关系,而且分阶段的系数会比不分阶段的系数更大且显著,显示出经济变量长期性的结构变化。
[Abstract]:The Greek debt crisis broke out in late 2009, the Domino effect of the debt crisis gradually spread from Greece to the euro zone, and began to gradually become the constraints of global economic recovery barriers. China began to issued treasury bonds in 1981, after a sharp increase in the scale of treasury bonds, treasury bonds in the promotion of economic development, has played an extremely important role improve the people's living standard. Especially since 1998, China's economic development has been the impact of the Asian financial crisis, the domestic insufficient demand of effectiveness of society. In order to resist the crisis and maintain steady economic growth, China began to implement expansionary, expansionary fiscal policy. In fact, treasury bonds in expanding domestic demand, play a crucial role in promoting rapid economic growth and increasing employment rate. But at the same time all kinds of risk bonds are also increasingly apparent, stop to 201 At the end of 1, the actual number of the national debt in China is 7 trillion and 204 billion 451 million yuan. Under the background of the European debt crisis, it is a worthwhile question to study the relationship between treasury bonds and economic growth and whether there is a possibility of "sovereign debt crisis" in China.
This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, introducing the relation between the background and research significance of public debt and economic growth, and introduces the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of the relationship between economic growth and government bonds; the second part summarizes the evolution of our bonds, at the same time through the 4 indicators of analysis of China's debt carrying capacity; the third part, a brief description of Ricardo equivalence theorem and economic growth model, and analyze the relationship between debt and economic growth in theory; the fourth part, according to the different data processing methods to the empirical part is divided into two parts: data processing section, data processing section. From the relationship between national debt and economic growth, the relationship between the initial level of public debt and economic growth, debt and Economic Research on the two aspects of the 15 countries, including the China The relationship between growth and its methods and conclusions are compared. The fifth part, based on the analysis of the preceding chapters, draws the conclusion and puts forward several suggestions to guard against the debt crisis in China.
In this paper, through empirical analysis, the conclusions are: the bonds in the debt crisis raging in the environment, debt on economic growth is not the same as before, can provide strong support for the countries in Europe, the debt burden has dragged down economic growth step. For both developed and developing countries, from the long run, the high debt levels of economic growth will be adversely affected. While the use of debt to levels of efficiency depends on the efficiency of government management level, to good use of the national debt policy tools to effectively plan good monitoring and funds, so as to cyclical economic growth. For our country, central the government's fiscal position is good, but China's local government financing platform for the total number of large scale and rising, should be vigilant, to prevent my debt The occurrence of an affair crisis.
This innovation is the scale of national debt on economic growth and the scale of the initial debt on the impact of economic growth on the scale of treasury bonds for comparison. The initial impact on economic growth is the 1981-2010 data segment: 1981-2010 data is divided into 6 sections, each 5 years into a time section. In each period of time: 198119861991199620012006 for the initial year. Such as a result of the initial stages of the national debt scale research on economic growth and phased debt scale research on economic growth were compared, respectively from two angles of long and short term further reveals the relationship between public debt and economic growth the stages and coefficient than the coefficient of phase is larger and significant, showing long-term structural changes in economic variables.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F812.5;F124

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