股票价格波动对货币政策的影响

发布时间：2017-12-31 21:01

本文关键词：股票价格波动对货币政策的影响　出处：《南京财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：本文主要研究股票价格波动对货币政策的影响，央行在制定货币政策时应该考虑股价的变化，并在必要时干预股市。如今我国的股票市场发展很快，已经具备了相当的规模，与经济生活的联系越来越密切。而且从世界各国的历史来看，股票价格的巨大波动往往伴随着严重的经济危机。这时候股票价格波动对消费、投资和产出所造成严重的影响。货币政策的目标在于稳定物价，那么只要是物价的大幅度波动，都需要货币政策进行调控。虽然当前央行名义上的中介目标是货币供应量，但是从我国的基础货币、货币乘数以及货币流通速度来看，这些变量都不稳定，而且不受央行控制。因此我国不应将货币供应量作为中介目标。我国当前正在进行利率市场化改革，可以考虑实行利率规则。在借鉴前人模型的基础上，本文对其进行了细节上的修改，建立了一个封闭经济模型，并推导出最优利率规则。这就从理论上证明了货币政策应该对股价波动做出反应。但是现实中我国货币政策具有特殊性，比如央行制定政策时会考虑到经济增长的目标，以及将存款准备金率作为常用货币政策工具。同时，我国的股票市场还不完善，比如没有卖空机制，效率比较低。这些都会导致严重的问题，那就是股市自身的纠正能力远远不够，过热的股票市场终会形成越来越大的泡沫。不但危急自身，而且会消耗实体经济的大量资源，严重影响实体经济的稳定。中央银行应该在必要时对股票价格进行调控，防止虚拟经济过热对实体经济的挤压。并且从历史上来看，，我国的中央银行也是这么做的。在2006-2008年期间，央行的存款准备金政策和存贷款利率政策的变化与股市涨跌有密切关系，央行在股价疯涨时调高准备金率和存贷款利率，在股价一落千丈时降低准备金率和存贷款利率。然后，本文在最优利率规则的基础上，选取2002-2011年的月度数据，将7日内银行同业拆借利率作为被解释变量，将工业增加值、商品零售价格指数和上证综指作为解释变量，将第二产业固定资产投资、居民消费物价指数和深成指作为工具变量，采用GMM方法进行回归分析。结果发现股价缺口前的系数为0.025，比较显著。这说明中央在银行的货币政策考虑到了股票价格波动。最后本文进行了总结，并提出了建议。首先是股票市场自身需要不断发展和完善，其次中央银行也要提高效率，全面地考虑经济形势，出台相应的货币政策。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly studies the influence of stock price fluctuation on monetary policy. When making monetary policy, the central bank should consider the change of stock price and intervene in stock market when necessary. Already have a considerable scale, and economic life is increasingly closely linked, and from the history of countries around the world. Stock price volatility is often accompanied by a severe economic crisis. At this time, stock price fluctuations have a serious impact on consumption, investment and output. The goal of monetary policy is to stabilize prices. So long as the price of large fluctuations, we need monetary policy to control. Although the current nominal central bank intermediary target is the money supply, but from the base money of our country. The monetary multiplier and the velocity of money circulation, these variables are unstable and not under the control of the central bank. Therefore, China should not take the money supply as the intermediate target. At present, China is carrying out the reform of interest rate marketization. We can consider implementing interest rate rules. On the basis of the previous models, we modify them in detail and set up a closed economic model. The optimal interest rate rule is deduced, which proves theoretically that monetary policy should react to stock price fluctuation. But in reality, China's monetary policy has its particularity. For example, the central bank will take into account the economic growth targets when formulating policies, and the reserve requirement ratio as a common monetary policy tool. At the same time, China's stock market is not perfect, for example, there is no short selling mechanism. Inefficient. These will lead to serious problems, that is, the stock market itself is far from rectifying capacity, overheated stock market will eventually form a bigger and bigger bubble. Not only crisis itself. Moreover, it will consume a large amount of resources of the real economy and seriously affect the stability of the real economy. The central bank should regulate the stock price when necessary. To prevent the virtual economy from overheating squeezing the real economy. And historically, the central bank of our country did the same. During the period 2006-2008. The changes in the central bank's deposit reserve policy and deposit and loan interest rate policies are closely related to the rise and fall of the stock market. The central bank raised the reserve ratio and deposit and loan interest rates when the stock price soared. When the stock price plummeted, the reserve ratio and deposit and loan rates were reduced. Then, based on the optimal interest rate rule, this paper selects the monthly data from 2002 to 2011. In 7th, the interbank offered rate is taken as the explanatory variable, the industrial added value, the retail price index and the Shanghai Composite Index are taken as the explanatory variables, and the second industry fixed assets investment is taken as the explanatory variable. The index of consumer price index (CPI) and deep index are used as tool variables, and the regression analysis is carried out by GMM method. The results show that the coefficient before the gap of stock price is 0.025. This shows that the monetary policy of the central bank takes stock price fluctuation into account. Finally, this paper summarizes and puts forward some suggestions. Firstly, the stock market needs to be developed and improved continuously. Second, the central bank should also improve efficiency, comprehensive consideration of the economic situation, the introduction of corresponding monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F832.51;F822.0

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