上市公司盈余结构的价值相关性研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 00:24

本文关键词：上市公司盈余结构的价值相关性研究　出处：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：证券市场是一个信息敏感型市场,会计信息是证券市场中上市公司信息披露的核心内容,利益相关者也主要通过披露的会计信息、了解上市公司的经营业绩。因此,只有具有较高信息含量的会计信息,才能真实无偏地反映企业各方面的经营状况,从而有助于证券市场利益相关者做出合理的决策,促进资本市场健康持续地发展。为了提高会计信息的信息含量,许多国家都不断修订和完善本国的会计准则,我国财政部也于2006年2月15日颁布了新的《企业会计准则》,新准则与国际会计准则全面接轨,并于2007年在上市公司中正式开始执行。新准则更加强调会计信息的决策有用性、真实性和公允性,着重于提高会计信息的质量以促进资源的有效配置,为投资者提供更多决策有用的信息、。会计信息在我国资本市场的发展与会计改革中的地位显得越来越重要,因此对我国资本市场会计信息进行全方位的分析已经迫在眉睫,并具有重要的理论与现实意义。会计盈余是会计信息中最重要的信息之一,盈余数据及其相应指标也是评价上市公司经营业绩的重要标准,大量研究会计信息价值相关性的文献也正是围绕着会计盈余及其相应指标进行的。上市公司的盈余数据一直是市场投资者关注的焦点,盈余数据的重要性促使了上市公司进行盈余管理的动机,从而降低公司会计盈余的质量。针对这种问题的存在,几乎所有的国家都会要求其上市公司按特定的步骤披露会计盈余,以识别上市公司盈余质量的真实情况。因此我们在进行会计盈余价值相关性分析时,不能仅仅考虑会计报表上易受操纵的净利润数据及其派生的指标,还必须综合考虑利润的构成项目以及构成比例,以更准确的反应公司的盈余质量。为此,本文基于中国资本市场环境研究新企业会计准则下盈余结构或具体盈余项目的价值含义,本文各章节详细内容如下：第一章,绪论。本章基于我国的现实情况首先阐述了本文的研究背景和研究意义,然后介绍了本文各章节的详细内容和本文的结构框架,最后介绍了本文的研究方法以及贡献与不足。第二章,文献综述。本章介绍了过去国内外学者有关会计盈余、盈余结构和亏损公司价值相关性的理论和实证研究成果,对这些研究成果进行总结,发现有关会计盈余价值相关性的研究已经引起了会计学术界的广泛关注,也在国内外取得了一大批研究成果,但专门研究盈余结构信息含量的文献则相对较少,起步也较晚,研究的也不够全面,更多的是理论研究,实证研究较少。第三章,盈余结构价值相关性研究的理论基础。该部分首先介绍会计信息价值相关性的含义,然后从信息观、计价观和契约观三个角度讨论会计信息的作用机制,又从有效市场假说、功能锁定假说、资本资产定价模型讨论资本市场基本理论,最后进行盈余结构价值相关性的制度背景分析,为之后的实证研究提供理论基础。第四章,实证检验部分。实证分析以2007年至2010年的上市公司数据为基础样本,首先描述实证研究数据的来源,接着介绍本文的研究假设和变量选取的方法,最后建立研究模型并进行实证检验,从描述性统计、相关性分析和回归分析三个方面进行价值相关性实证研究,并得出以下研究结论：(1)总括盈余净利润对被解释变量股票价格的解释能力较强,并且在各年度间表现出极强的稳定性,说明总括盈余具有价值相关性,能够向投资者传递关于股票价值的有用信息；(2)将盈余分解为各结构性项目能显著地增加盈余对股票价格的解释能力,披露盈余的结构性项目比总括盈余更加有助于投资者分析和判断公司价值,从而做出更理性的投资决策,证明了盈余结构的价值相关性高于总括盈余；(3)亏损样本下会计盈余与股票价格的关系变得十分微弱,模型调整的拟合优度比较低,解释变量的回归系数几乎均不显著,说明亏损公司的会计盈余不存在价值相关性或价值相关性较弱,但亏损样本下仍然存在盈余分解效应；(4)主营业务利润分解模型的调整的R2大于营业利润分解模型,证明了主营业务利润比营业利润更具有显著的边际信息含量；(5)总样本分组检验中,按每股收益分组的回归结果R2随着每股收益的增加而上升,但在主营业务利润比重和营业利润比重分组的情况下并不呈现这一规律,说明我国证券市场仍然存在“功能锁定”的现象；(6)将营业利润分解为收入项和费用项之后,收入项与费用项具有显著的价值含义差异,收入项比费用项更具有价值相关性。第五章,研究结论与政策建议。本章首先总结了本文的实证研究结论,然后以我国的现实情况为基础,提出提高我国会计信息价值相关性的四点建设性意见：深化监管政策的市场化改革、提高注册会计师的审计独立性和信息分析能力、完善会计信息披露制度,提高会计信息披露质量、提高投资者自身知识水平和法律意识。本文的主要贡献在于： (1)以往学者的研究主要关注上市公司会计盈余的价值相关性,很少有人专门分析不同的收益来源如何影响投资者的投资决策、分解盈余和总括盈余对股票价格的解释差异,对上市公司的盈余结构的价值相关性进行专门研究的文献较少,实证研究更是聊聊无几。本文采用理论与实证研究的方法检验了上市公司总括盈余和结构性盈余对股价的影响,另外还研究了亏损公司的价值相关性问题、分组样本下会计盈余价值相关性的比较,研究的范围很全面,并从盈余结构这个全新的角度对价值相关性进行了研究。 (2)本文在盈余结构的指标设计中,不同于以往的研究只从某一角度对总括盈余进行分解,而是从不同的角度将总括盈余划分为结构性盈余,涉及到利润表中净利润、主营业务利润、营业利润、收入项和费用项的信息含量,另外还专门研究了亏损公司盈余结构的价值相关性,使得本文的研究结论更具有准确性和稳定性。 (3)本文以实施新企业会计准则后2007年至2010年的A股上市公司数据作为研究样本,分析的结果可为新准则的实施效果提供有力的证明,从而弥补以往学者的研究主要采用旧准则下相关数据的缺陷,能够检验上市公司盈余构成项目对股价的长期影响。 (4)结合本文的研究结论,对如何提高我国会计信息的价值相关性提出了四点建设性意见,对以后资本市场的发展与完善具有重大的参考价值和现实意义。由于时间、能力、研究条件等限制,本文的研究存在很多局限性,本文研究的局限性及可以进一步研究的方向主要有以下几点： (1)本文只采用价格模型进行实证研究,没有采用其它模型(如收益模型)进一步检验结论的稳定性,另外价格模型反映的是盈余数据对股票价格的累积影响,因此价格模型下的研究结果可能会存在规模效应,实证结果也有所偏颇。 (2)本文没有考虑行业因素对会计盈余有效性的影响,没有按行业对研究样本进一步细分,建议以后的研究可以分行业检验,以得到更加准确的结论。 (3)影响价值相关性的因素有很多,比如投资人的心理、政府颁布的政策、公司重组等,但是由于其复杂性,我们在研究中不能将所有影响因素都纳入研究范围,因此本文存在固有的局限性。
[Abstract]:The securities market is a sensitive market information, accounting information is the core content of the securities market information disclosure of listed companies and stakeholders mainly through the disclosure of accounting information, understand the business performance of the listed company. Therefore, only the high quality accounting information, in order to unbiased reflect all aspects of enterprise management the status, which contributes to the securities market stakeholders to make reasonable decisions, and promote the sound development of capital market. In order to improve the information content of accounting information, many countries continue to revise and improve their accounting standards, China's Ministry of Finance on February 15, 2006 promulgated the new "accounting standards for business enterprises, the full integration of new with international accounting standards, and in 2007 in the listed company officially started. The new guidelines put more emphasis on the decision usefulness of accounting information, true and fair Of the effective allocation of emphasis on quality improvement of accounting information in order to promote the resources, provide useful information for investors more decision-making. Development of accounting information in China's capital market and accounting reform has become more and more important, so it is imminent to make a complete analysis of China's capital market and accounting information. It has important theoretical and practical significance. The accounting earnings is one of the most important information in the accounting information, an important standard of earnings data and the corresponding index is the performance evaluation of listed companies, a lot of research on the value relevance of accounting information literature is also around the accounting earnings and its corresponding index.
The earnings data of listed companies has been the focus of investors in stock market, the importance of earnings data prompted the listed company earnings management motivation, so as to reduce the earning quality. Aiming at this problem, almost all countries will require disclosure of accounting earnings according to the specific steps of the listed companies, to identify the real situation the earnings quality of listed companies. So we analyze the value relevance of accounting earnings, not only consider the net profit data on the accounting statement is susceptible to manipulation and derived indicators must also constitute the project considering the profit and the proportion of the earnings quality, company more accurate. Therefore, the meaning of the value of new business study on environmental China capital market accounting standards on earnings structure or detailed earnings items based on the detailed chapters as follows:
The first chapter is the introduction. Based on the reality of our country, this chapter first expounds the background and significance of the research, then introduces the detailed contents of this chapter and the structure framework of this article. Finally, it introduces the research methods, contributions and shortcomings of this paper.
The second chapter is literature review. This chapter introduces the past domestic and foreign scholars on the accounting earnings, theoretical and empirical research results of the correlation between earnings structure and loss of the value of the company, the paper research on the value relevance of accounting surplus has attracted extensive attention in accounting academia, has also made a large number of research results at home and abroad, but the specialized research on the information content of earnings structure literature is relatively small, started late, the research is not comprehensive, more theoretical research, empirical research is limited.
The third chapter, the theoretical basis of value relevance of earnings structure. This part first introduces the meaning of the value relevance of accounting information, and then from the information perspective, valuation perspective and contract perspective in three aspects to discuss the mechanism of accounting information, and from the efficient market hypothesis, false lock function, the capital asset pricing model to discuss the basic theory of capital market. Analysis of system background and value relevance of earnings structure, provide a theoretical basis for further empirical studies.
Fourth chapter is the empirical part. The empirical analysis on the data of listed companies from 2007 to 2010 as the basic samples, first describe the source of empirical data, and then introduces the method of the research hypotheses and variable selection, finally establish the research model and empirical test, from descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and regression analysis of three aspects of research the value relevance of empirical analysis, and draw the following conclusions: (1) earnings net profit on the explanatory variables to explain stock price ability, and showed strong stability in different year, that overall earnings have value relevance, can convey useful information about the value of the shares to investors; (2) earnings for the structural decomposition project can significantly increase the explanatory power of earning to price earnings ratio, structural project disclosure of earnings is more conducive to investment Investors to analyze and judge the value of the company, so as to make rational investment decisions, proved the value relevance of earnings structure is higher than the earnings; (3) the relationship between accounting earnings and stock price of the loss of the sample becomes very weak, goodness of model is relatively low, the regression coefficients of explanatory variables that almost were not significant. The loss of the company's accounting earnings have no value relevance is weak, but the loss still exists surplus sample decomposition effect; (4) the main business profit decomposition model adjusted R2 is greater than the operating profit decomposition model, proved that the main business profit is more significant than the marginal information content of operating profit; (5) the total sample grouping test, according to the regression results of earnings per share of the R2 packet increases with the increase of earnings per share, but in the main business profit proportion and the proportion of the group operating profit Do not show under this law, shows that China stock market is still "function lock" phenomenon; (6) the operating profit income and expenses for decomposition, income and expenses with the meaning of the value difference and income than the cost has more value relevance.
The fifth chapter, conclusions and suggestions. This chapter summarizes the conclusions of the empirical research, based on the reality of our country, put forward to improve the four point of the construction of the value relevance of accounting information in our opinion: deepening market-oriented reform of regulatory policy, improve the independence of the audit and information analysis ability of registered accountants the improvement of accounting information disclosure system, improve the quality of accounting information disclosure, improve investor's own level of knowledge and awareness of the law.
The main contributions of this article are as follows:
(1) the value relevance of previous scholars mainly focus on the accounting earnings of listed companies, there are few people devoted to the analysis of how different sources of income affect the investment decisions of investors, earnings and earnings decomposition on the stock price difference, make a special study on the value relevance of earnings structure of listed companies in the literature, empirical research is talk much. In this paper, theoretical and empirical research methods are used to test the influence on the earnings of listed companies on the stock price and the structural surplus, in addition to loss of the company's value relevance are also studied, comparing the value relevance of accounting surplus sample groups, the research scope is very comprehensive, and carried out the research from a new perspective of earnings structure on the value relevance.
(2) the design index of earnings structure, different from the previous research only from a perspective of earnings decomposition, but from a different perspective on the earnings will be divided into structural surplus, relates to the net profit in the profit statement, the main business profit, operating profit, income and expense items of information content in addition, devoted to the study of the value relevance of earnings structure of company, the conclusion of this thesis has more accuracy and stability.
(3) in this paper, after the implementation of new accounting standards from 2007 to 2010 A shares of listed companies as the research sample data, provide strong proof of the effectiveness of the implementation of the results for the new standards, in order to make up for the research of previous scholars mainly use the relevant data under the old accounting standards defects, can constitute a project on inspection of listed companies earnings the price of long-term effects.
(4) combined with the conclusions of this paper, we put forward four constructive suggestions on how to improve the relevance of accounting information in China, which has great reference value and practical significance for the future development and improvement of capital market.
Due to the limitations of time, ability and research conditions, there are many limitations in this study. The limitations of this study and the directions for further research are mainly as follows.
(1) this paper only uses the price model for empirical research, without the use of other models (such as profit model) stability further inspection conclusion, also reflects the cumulative effect of the price model of earnings data on the stock price, so the price of model results may exist the scale effect, the empirical results also biased.
(2) this paper does not consider the impact of industry factors on the effectiveness of accounting earnings. It has not been further subdivided according to industry research samples. It is suggested that future research can be divided into industry tests to get more accurate conclusions.
(3) there are many factors that affect the value relevance, such as investor psychology, government promulgated policies, corporate restructuring and so on. But because of its complexity, we can not take all the factors into the research scope, so there are inherent limitations in this paper.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F275;F224

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